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Old 03-31-2017, 07:51 PM
willthrill81 willthrill81 is offline
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Originally Posted by 22Jammer View Post
As an employee of -2- first generation billionaires I can tell you it most certainly is true. When the market tanked, my bosses borrowed money on their paid for properties and invested the money made 4-5 times what they were paying in interest. They also bought as many properties from 2008-2010 than they have the previous 30 years. They waited till the scrubs defaulted on their jets and bought far newer airplanes, paid cash then financed the notes. We fly newer airplanes and they are richer than ever.

The rich DO get richer. I've seen it first hand..
Two people do not represent all of the mega rich, not by a long shot.

Warren Buffet is probably the best stock investor of all time, and he lost many billions in 2008-2009.
Old 04-04-2017, 06:12 AM
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Velvet Elvis Velvet Elvis is online now
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Might not be right, but I've heard that 401k plans usually have at least one value type fund. Are "value" funds in a 401k basically the same as money market accounts, to serve as a low risk / low growth fund to protect / preserve wealth?

If a person suspects a crash is coming, wouldn't it be prudent to move at least a portion of one's 401k into such a thing?
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Old 04-04-2017, 06:32 AM
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Value funds aren't the same as money markets. They are made up of under priced stocks and are positioned to attempt to outperform the market in general. That, said, in some cases they may also be in a position to fall less than the market since they are already under priced, sector dependent of course. There are entirely too many variables when it comes down to it.

A money market option or a bond option is probably where you want to be if you think the market is going to crash.
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Old 04-04-2017, 11:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordOpie View Post
Glad to know it's not just me.
It's technical analysis...gibberish
Chart strategist
Listen to me...buy my SYSTEM....buy my book
The guy has done a pretty good job making people think he is more ACCURATE than the next chart strategist

It's the Peter Schiff formula====>
He is THE ONLY ONE who predicted the housing CRISIS
Therefore you should listen to him
Appeal to authority fallacy...imho
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Old 04-04-2017, 09:57 PM
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Remember when we were approaching Dow-10,000, and people thought it couldn't go higher?

If it only corrects to 14K, we may just be lucky. Something REALLY bad happens (or worse, a series of somethings bads), it could reset to 4 digits. Then what?
Old 04-04-2017, 10:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Susanna View Post
Remember when we were approaching Dow-10,000, and people thought it couldn't go higher?

If it only corrects to 14K, we may just be lucky. Something REALLY bad happens (or worse, a series of somethings bads), it could reset to 4 digits. Then what?
Then you buy everything that isn't tied down and you get uber rich inside 10 years.
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Old 05-05-2017, 06:48 AM
mtnairkin mtnairkin is offline
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Originally Posted by mtnairkin View Post
I've watched these 'Gurus' for a lot of years. It's a hit or miss thing and I've never read any of them to make me think they are prophets. This guy says the Dow might go up to $22,000 and it might go down to $14,000.

Uh huh, I'll do him one better. It might go up to $25,000 and it might get as low as $8,000. Send me money and I'll do savvy investing for you and take my cut whether it goes up or down.

I'll try to remember to bump this thread on his May date and see which direction the market 'corrected'.

I don't think a black swan event happens very often. We all know the dangers of investing (and the benefits). Prices go up temptingly and they fall drastically. People blind themselves to the possibilities and believe whatever huckster they want to and then claim no one could ever see it coming.

Now I'd consider a black swan event something like a series of solar flares that causes the proverbial EMP to knock out electrical facilities all over the world. Truly unpredictable.



I wanted to remember to restart this thread about now so we can kind of track this guy's prediction that is supposed to happen within about a week. Roy Walker just started another thread on another 'guru' and reminded me of this thread. Thanks Roy.

Anyway, maybe we can kick this particular chart/prediction around for the next few days and see if there is any credence in his work.

My thoughts are "just another huckster preying on market fears/get rich now when everyone else is foundering".
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Old 05-05-2017, 11:24 AM
willthrill81 willthrill81 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnairkin View Post
I wanted to remember to restart this thread about now so we can kind of track this guy's prediction that is supposed to happen within about a week. Roy Walker just started another thread on another 'guru' and reminded me of this thread. Thanks Roy.

Anyway, maybe we can kick this particular chart/prediction around for the next few days and see if there is any credence in his work.

My thoughts are "just another huckster preying on market fears/get rich now when everyone else is foundering".
The truth is that no one knows what's going to happen in the stock market. Nobody. And if they did know, do you think that they would go blabbing it around to everybody? Of course not. They would be shorting the market with everything they possibly could. But with very rare exceptions, these so-called "gurus" aren't doing that, which just goes to show that they are full of it and won't put their money where their mouth is.
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Old 05-05-2017, 04:56 PM
Hugh Glass Hugh Glass is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by willthrill81 View Post
The truth is that no one knows what's going to happen in the stock market. Nobody. .
The market will go up and it will go down.

Just call me no one..
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Old 05-05-2017, 05:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mere_Man View Post
Crash guru warns the Dow could plunge to 14,800 — a sign could come this week...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cra...tch-2017-03-13

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/crash-...162001357.html


I don't know anything about this guy but the article claims that he's accurately predicated before and it appears as though even puts dates on his predictions.
I could become 7 feet tall and young. Odds are not good.
Old 05-05-2017, 05:06 PM
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I might lose this beer belly or stop drinking beer.
Old 05-05-2017, 09:33 PM
willthrill81 willthrill81 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh Glass View Post
The market will go up and it will go down.

Just call me no one..
Likewise, I predict that a significant market correction will come.

However, I will not say when.
Old 05-11-2017, 01:53 PM
mtnairkin mtnairkin is offline
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A rumble of drums is now appropriate. Today is the designated day for big news in the stock market. Not much of a blip, even with Trump's firing of Comey.

Give it a few more days and we'll see if any significant economic news turns up.

I think Willthrill has it right but he won't say when.

I'll be more specific. During the next two years the market will make dramatic increases and scary drops and if you don't play it right you will miss out on making huge profits.
Old 05-12-2017, 05:48 PM
Mule Skinner Mule Skinner is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by willthrill81 View Post
The money literally evaporates. It disappears.

The price for a share of stock, say Apple, is the point which the market has collectively determined is the 'right' price. If more people think it should be higher than lower, then the price goes up, and vice versa.

In a correction (more precise than a crash, which the market has really never done as that implies it went to zero), the market collectively says that stocks are worth less than they were before. Therefore, the total value of the market drops, and the 'dollars' just disappear.

Imagine that you bought your house for $100,000 and, over time, its assessed value went up to $200,000. Then there was a real estate downturn and your home lost 40% of its value. That means it is now worth $120,000. What happened to that $80,000 of equity you had? It went poof into thin air. If this happened to everyone, then all of those 'dollars' in everyone's equity also went poof.

Now let's say that you sold your house before the downturn and pocketed the $200,000. The person who bought it then lost $80,000 in equity. You could argue that the $80,000 is in your pocket, which is obviously true, but $80,000 still just disappeared because the market has collectively revalued the asset at $80,000 less than before.

This is difficult for some to understand, especially since many think that 'the elite' make money regardless, but the latter is simply false. Certainly a few people make money in a market downturn, but think of all the people who trail the market when it's in an upward cycle as it has been for the last nine years.

Regarding the OP, people make predictions of this sort all the time. They are all B.S. To consistently make such predictions, one would literally have to know the future of all the variables involved in the stock market, which are literally millions (at a minimum every single person invested in stocks).

I own a house like the one described. I paid $95,000 and now it's worth $200,000 +/-.
Since I'm not selling, though, the market price is moot.
I have the same number of rooms whether the price goes up or down~!
Old 05-12-2017, 07:04 PM
willthrill81 willthrill81 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnairkin View Post
A rumble of drums is now appropriate. Today is the designated day for big news in the stock market. Not much of a blip, even with Trump's firing of Comey.

Give it a few more days and we'll see if any significant economic news turns up.

I think Willthrill has it right but he won't say when.
I won't say when because I don't when, and nobody else does either.
Old 05-12-2017, 11:22 PM
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I'm doing alright in my Nvidia investment.
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