Survivalist Forum banner

Why we are NOT near a financial collapse

37K views 268 replies 98 participants last post by  bobzilla 
#1 ·
Certainly I am gravely concerned about the direction our country is going, and our fiscal policies are a joke. However, we are not yet near a financial Armageddon like many seem to think. Consider the following FACTS:

unemployment: currently 10%. It topped 25% during the Depression. Did the world end?

debt: the debt to GDP ratio is no where near an all time high. Private debt is actually trending down, some people have wised up. Savings rates are the highest in over a decade.

Europe: with the euro weakening significantly, the dollar is looking more and more attractive to foreigners

I would be interested in hearing a case for imminent collapse, based on facts. No emotional arguments please.
 
#2 ·
What are you smoking? 10% unemployment? Get real! Where I'm at, unemployment is at least 20 to 25%. And with Obama tampering on the figures drop down to like 15%. What is interesting is that there are "some local sources" that place unemployment nearer to 30%.

In addition there are like 5 more economic bubbles ready to burst any time and you think we're not close to a financial collapse. You don't live under a bridge and eat goats, do you?
 
#6 ·
Well, if it's 25% near you it must be like that everywhere, not. Did it occur to you guys that the 25% I compared to was also an "official government number". Apples to apples. If you really think unemployment right now is comparable yto the Depression you need to talk to an old timer. You didn't present a single fact, just numbers out of thin air and speculation about "like five more bubbles". Again, I believe we're in bad shape, but no where near collapse. I backed my case solidly, can you?
 
#3 ·
Certainly I am gravely concerned about the direction our country is going, and our fiscal policies are a joke. However, we are not yet near a financial Armageddon like many seem to think. Consider the following FACTS: unemployment: currently 10%. It topped 25% during the Depression. Did the world end? debt: the debt to GDP ratio is no where near an all time high. Private debt is actually trending down, some people have wised up. Savings rates are the highest in over a decade. Europe: with the euro weakening significantly, the dollar is looking more and more attractive to foreigners. I would be interested in hearing a case for imminent collapse, based on facts. No emotional arguments please.
Respectfully, you are relying on government information and numbers for your analysis. Your conclusion is based upon false data, and is gravely in error. I will not elaborate in this thread. The valid data is elsewhere on this board.
 
#5 ·
Very nice with an alternative perspective! However I would guess that most answers not will be very friendly. At least you have the balls to say what you think.

And just because you lift one positive perspective it doesn’t mean that you disregard all dangers, risks or other negative information. It’s not all black but a grey mix with some bright spots. When the life expectancy in the US actually starts to fall then we can start talking, I would say that things have actually never been better in the US when it comes to how long people actually survive/live.

Upsate Joe: I do not really think it matters what fact I would present. Do you realize that the warnings you referring to haven’t taken place yet?

Check this out
http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_shows_the_best_stats_you_ve_ever_seen.html
http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_reveals_new_insights_on_poverty.html

Takeko: So only posting negative information should be allowed? I think we need all perspectives on the board, not just the negative. And do we really need to start the thread with name calling? At least he has the courage to say what he thinks.
 
#12 ·
When they say "those claiming unemployment" they are talking about those eligible to receive wage compensation.

Example" Obama today announces that unemployment is down 2%. That means 2% of people either found jobs, ran out of benefits, or stopped looking. Which seems more likely?

We don't have a 10% unemployment.

We have a 10% population LOOKING for employment. The guys on welfare are content.

Don't fall into believing statistics. I could ride down the main street here, and show you 40% of the town sitting on front porches drinking a beer.
 
#13 ·
The real unemployment rate is not 10%, it's much higer: http://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2010/02/05-1

It's true the unemployment rate in the great depression was 29.4%. When trying to compare historical and contemporary employment and unemployment rates, it is important to note that US employment and unemployment figures (and there are multiple official employment and unemployment figures for the same time period, just as there are multiple official rates of inflation, depending on exactly what is being looked at) are now calculated differently than they were during the 1930s and 1940s. In general, current unemployment numbers would be between 5% and 10% higher if calculated in the same way as in the past; conversely, the numbers from the 1930s and 1940s would be 5% - 10% lower if calculated using our contemporary methods.

States that are broke: Currently 41 are in serious trouble, California: $53.7 billion shortfall or 58 percent of its budget. Illinois spends 3 dollars for every 2 it brings in and is 4 MONTHS behind on it's bills to say nothing for billions behind on it's pensions.

Federal Government: Is in debt 13.5 Trillion dollars, they have massive new debts with ever decreasing tax revenues, they are in a mess with no way out. That's why countless people in Congress are screaming that we are getting to the point of no return.

I understand you believe everything will be just fine, no problems that we can't handle...I respect that but the facts don't speak that. Just ask the people of Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal
 
#14 ·
Loss After Loss

Job after job is lost to the foreign market - CHINA! Quality has gone out the door!

Unemployment is NOT better. I've been out of a job for over 1-1/2 years now. There are NO JOBS other than financial (marketing CHINA CRAP) or medical (nursing for an arrogant doctor). There are NO manufacturing jobs left anymore; the few that are, are barely holding on or soon going to CHINA. Places like Detroit Michigan are wastelands of NOTHING!

$1,400,000 is spent daily by the BIG BANKS to lobby Congress to do things THEIR WAY. Citibank ws responsible for getting the bankruptcy laws changed. Now it is virtually impossible to get the MONKEY OFF OF YOU BACK. I can not afford to file nor can I pay a mandatory percentage to the RICH :taped:'s that got us into this mess.

200,000 people are loosing their houses each month and it is NOT slowing down.

I got this stuff off of a PBS show a couple of weeks ago.

After I loose my house and everything I will be destitute and owing on a credit card that wil have stiff penalties added for not paying for something I have NO MONEY for. I will be on the street living under the bridge with the growing number of people that have been thrown away by the RICH.

You say I need to get training - HOW? I have no money. I do have three years of college I acquired while serving in the military just to have some arrogant university tell me my credits are worthless here. I have tons of skills but what THEY are looking for are stupid barely functional robots not someone with intellegence.

It's all about the MONEY and how much THEY can take from us. The United (barely) States is a hollowed out shell. IMO the US has already collapsed it's just that the RICH :taped:'s and their Monopoly Money just don't know it yet. THEY will soon.

:upsidedown:
 
#124 ·
Job after job is lost to the foreign market - CHINA! Quality has gone out the door!

Unemployment is NOT better. I've been out of a job for over 1-1/2 years now. There are NO JOBS other than financial (marketing CHINA CRAP) or medical (nursing for an arrogant doctor). There are NO manufacturing jobs left anymore; the few that are, are barely holding on or soon going to CHINA. Places like Detroit Michigan are wastelands of NOTHING!

$1,400,000 is spent daily by the BIG BANKS to lobby Congress to do things THEIR WAY. Citibank ws responsible for getting the bankruptcy laws changed. Now it is virtually impossible to get the MONKEY OFF OF YOU BACK. I can not afford to file nor can I pay a mandatory percentage to the RICH :taped:'s that got us into this mess.

200,000 people are loosing their houses each month and it is NOT slowing down.

I got this stuff off of a PBS show a couple of weeks ago.

After I loose my house and everything I will be destitute and owing on a credit card that wil have stiff penalties added for not paying for something I have NO MONEY for. I will be on the street living under the bridge with the growing number of people that have been thrown away by the RICH.

You say I need to get training - HOW? I have no money. I do have three years of college I acquired while serving in the military just to have some arrogant university tell me my credits are worthless here. I have tons of skills but what THEY are looking for are stupid barely functional robots not someone with intellegence.

It's all about the MONEY and how much THEY can take from us. The United (barely) States is a hollowed out shell. IMO the US has already collapsed it's just that the RICH :taped:'s and their Monopoly Money just don't know it yet. THEY will soon.

:upsidedown:
Wow...where do I start?
What "Rich Person" told you to borrow on that card?
Who told you nurses work for arrogant doctors? My wife has been ICU nurse for 18 yrs......loves it.
You have tons of skills? You mis-spelled Intelligence.heh....heh..
Bright fellow.
If you are so great, go to mickey-d's...you will be in management in no time.
If you can't find one good job, go get 3 bad ones. it will balance out.
you are a loser and it is everybody else s fault.
 
#17 ·
I too think we're nowhere near some dark ages of financial ruin, but I do think it's not the unemployment numbers that are indicators of our national health, but more like what OhioMan said about the states and federal government spending billions more than they make.

The day of reckoning is going to be no streetlights, lots of potholes, and overgrown parks.
 
#133 ·
The day of reckoning is going to be no streetlights, lots of potholes, and overgrown parks.
Hey, that sounds like my hometown, Greeley, CO which is terrible with potholes and they don't allow dogs in parks except for one called Rover Run :rolleyes:

The social services building has been expanded 4 times its size and 3 stories high, over the past 2 years.

And how about all the closed schools, cutbacks, closed stores, restaurants etc. etc. etc. etc....................................... some parts of my town, pop. over 80,000 are starting to look like a ghost town.
 
#18 ·
No, actually you didn't back your case solidly. Your 'facts' are no more backed up than what you call out others for as "pulled out of thin air". Just because you stated

debt: the debt to GDP ratio is no where near an all time high. Private debt is actually trending down, some people have wised up. Savings rates are the highest in over a decade.
and
Europe: with the euro weakening significantly, the dollar is looking more and more attractive to foreigners
doesn't make them 'facts' because you were the OP of the the thread.

Post a LEGITIMATE website with ACTUAL statistics for more than a day showing a trend of the EURO going down and the US DOLLAR going up, that would be a fact. Show a link to a legit site comparing GDP for the last several years/decades, that would be a fact. Until then your a troll, and the longer this goes on the more foolish you look.

If you are truly really willing to have a discussion, have open dialog and discourse, the exchange of ideas backed by DATA (which you still haven't provided any more than the people you are calling out, only Upstate Joe and OhioMan have posted links) then this will be great, otherwise, this is gonna get ugly real quick and then blow over. Do yourself a favor and either post some DATA to back your claims or don't throw blood in the water in the first place.

--DL

PS - Yes, I know I didn't contribute to the discussion, wasn't planning to, clicked on the board to see what others were saying and found the troll baiting others and I'm having another bad day at work.
 
#41 ·
Japan does have a higher debt to GDP ratio but....

The majority of Japan's debt is held internally, by it's citizens. The majority of US debt is held externally - the top 2 holders are China and Japan. What if Japan (never mind China for a moment) decides to sell US debt to fund itself?

Perception, this is a totally misguided argument.

As for unemployment statistics, they were changed during the Clinton years. As many above have mentioned, using these statistics are almost useless.

How about the last BLS report? Out of 290K jobs added, 66k were temporary census jobs and 188K were "created" from birth/death model.

I'm not saying a crash is imminent but the possibility is certainly higher than say Yellowstone blowing it's top next week.....
 
#23 ·
Welcome to the boards, Perception.

You're wrong. I'm not going to badmouth you, but your comparison is NOT apples to apples.

The unemployment in the Great Depression and the unemployment today aren't even relevant to each other. There are so many other financial and political factors that the data on that doesn't even matter.

There wasn't any Social Security in the GD. There weren't two horrible expensive foreign wars in the GD. There wasn't a nanny state as there is now in the GD. There wasn't personal surveillance in the GD. There wasn't 100 trillion of unfunded liabilities in the GD. There weren't foreign countries going bankrupt like tiny popping bubbles in the GD. China wasn't a military power in the GD. There weren't loose nukes in the GD. America didn't import 60% of her oil in the GD. Enviro-whackos didn't keep us from harvesting our own resources to climb back out of poverty in the GD. Illegal immigrants didn't suppress wages and suck off of the freebies our libs make us give out in the GD. We didn't have a war on drugs in the GD. Terrorists from Allah weren't trying to kill large numbers of us at any opportunity in the GD. Silver and Gold weren't more in demand than mining can keep up with in the GD. Copper wasn't becoming a rare metal in the GD. Most people knew how to can/hunt/grow crops in the GD. Taxes weren't 60%+ in some places in the GD. A man didn't have to spend $$$ to consult with local gov't, attorneys, and building code specialists to start up a business in the GD, he just hung up a shingle. Attorneys weren't advertising on TV to bleed the nation dry in the GD.

I think I've made my point as to why employment is such a very small part of what impacts both the GD and now.

I hope being wrong doesn't push you away from the site. I hope, instead, you continue to share your ideas and we will all admire the best and discard the rest, so to speak.
 
#37 ·
Absolutely! :thumb:

Here's some statistics and facts about the first depression: http://www.shmoop.com/great-depression/statistics.html

In particular I found this statistic to be profoundly interesting:

Civilian Population of Voting Age
in 1932: 75.7 million
in 1934: 77.9 million
in 1936: 80.1 million
in 1938: 82.2 million


If we do a rough average for the population then (80 million) and figure 25% of them as unemployed we end up with 19.75 million unemployed Americans.



Now lets work with obongo's figures for a minute which we all know are bogus, but we'll work with the anyway. This is the link I used for the total and under 20 population in the U.S.: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States

So we take the total population of 309 million.

Take out the 27% of those under the age of 20, 83.43 million.

That leaves us with roughly 225.57 million tax paying adults.

Now take obongo's very conservative figure of 10% unemployment.

This leaves us with 22.56 million tax paying adults out of work...... That's 22.56 million potential tax payers no longer contributing to the economy! And 22.56 million Americans adding additional drain to an already stressed economy. We won't even begin to delve into the strain to our economy millions of criminals aliens are causing, because that's another monster all on it's own.

Now also if you can keep in mind Perception, that obongo's figure of 10% does not include those who's benefits have run out, or those who never claimed unemployment benefits to begin with. If you wish to engage in intelligent discussions, please provide the facts to back up your "theories."


_________________________

III

"Obama, the skid-mark in the underwear of American history."
- J.R.L. -
 
#25 ·
I tend toward the idea that we are in for a long hard struggle but not collapse and appreciate this discussion -- and the debate of perspectives initiated by Perception.

Thanks Crusis for a thoughtful outline of the difference between then (Great Depression) and now. But there are also many other items you could compare between then and now that add to strengths as well as weaknesses.

I still don't think the dye is cast -- that collapse is inevitable.
 
#27 ·
Crusis, those are all valid points, and in the long run I DO believe collapse is likely. Short of nuclear attack though, what's the trigger for a collapse inside of, say, 5-10 years? I just don't see it. Part of this may be my life experiences. Mountaineering has taken me to 56 countries over the last 30 years, and I've seen how poor people can truly be, but despite that the gov. just keeps on truckin'. That almost scares me more, a slow descent into 3rd world conditions, with no cataclysmic event that rallies the troops, so to speak.
 
#30 ·
Crusis, those are all valid points, and in the long run I DO believe collapse is likely. Short of nuclear attack though, what's the trigger for a collapse inside of, say, 5-10 years? I just don't see it.
You cannot predict a total collapse with any reasonable accuracy.

Look at the Soviet Union. Most of our intelligence assets were focused on the USSR and the Eastern Bloc nations. Overnight the Soviet Union was no more and the Warsaw Pact crumbled.

Argentina was hit hard as soon as foreign capital was pulled from them and they reset their Peso.

The US may very well have imploded in 2008. We may never know the truth on that one.

If nothing else, we are on very shakey ground and primed for high or hyper inflations. Our debt continues to grow and we do not manufacture as a whole. We have gone from a manufacturing nation (which is what won WWII) to a service-based economy (financial services).

Unofficial unemployment is nearly 20% and in much of the country the bottom has fallen out of the real estate market.

We are teetering on the edge my friend. All we need is a push.
 
#28 ·
think your lucky over in the States,we have an open door policy that's still allowing 'economic' migarants in while we're on our @ss in the UK,indiginous people out of work,paying for jobless/homeless east europeans to be returned home at the same time as a busload of 'job seekers' comes in the opposite direction,go figure??????government waste,corruption i.e. 'consultants',we'd be a rich country if only we'd wake up,stop sleep walking and start doing things for ourself first!
 
#31 ·
So you don't think we're in a collapse already ?? Just ask the 40 million people who rely on food stamps for their food. Just ask the people living in tent cities. Just ask the homeless guy on the street. Take a drive thru Detroit. Detroit used to be one of our strongest cities. Just ask somebody who has been unemployed for over a year. Just ask somebody who's trying to sell their house.
 
#33 ·
Certainly I am gravely concerned about the direction our country is going, and our fiscal policies are a joke. However, we are not yet near a financial Armageddon like many seem to think. Consider the following FACTS:

unemployment: currently 10%. It topped 25% during the Depression. Did the world end?
FACT:

1. go here: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ln
2. scroll down, click: "Alternative measure of labor underutilization U-6 - LNS13327709"

definition: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.. this means all unemployed...

3: notice April number of 17.1%.... thats the real unemployment rate.. the 10% number is only part of the total..

..and the world did "end", for 50 plus Million people who died in WWII, as a result of the irresponsible nature a few of the worlds governments displayed as a direct result of the economic havoc the Great Depression caused...


debt: the debt to GDP ratio is no where near an all time high.
FACT:

Google "Debt to GDP ratio"... select images... see the graphs... they all look like this (apparently your "down" is up):



Private debt is actually trending down, some people have wised up. Savings rates are the highest in over a decade.
Private debt is trending down is translating into "higher savings rates" because banks have removed 50% of available credit from the economy... and severely tightened lending requirements... its a red herring....

You also must have missed the increase in consumer spending data all over the networks recently... its a wonder tapped consumers have money to save, yet they are spending?

Europe: with the euro weakening significantly, the dollar is looking more and more attractive to foreigners
FACT: The dollar is the equivalent of the "best looking ugly girl in the room".

I would be interested in hearing a case for imminent collapse, based on facts. No emotional arguments please.
Since your "facts" have just been refuted... I'd say there is ample case that there are clear indicators that risk is much higher today than it has been since before WWII...

What we choose to believe is "factual" of course is the real question... isn't it?
 
#34 ·
Closer... that figure does include those who are only working part-time but would really rather be working full-time.

However, even those numbers do not account for those taken off unemployment due to being fired, those who declined to seek UI benefits, those who lost UI benefits from inaccurate or false information filed, those who have simply given up and accepted poverty, and those whose unemployment has simply run out.

The closest figure is 25% as of today, if measured by the same criteria as in 1929. We are in a depression. Politricksters lie with numbers, but no rocket science degree is needed to see how to compare apples-to-apples when it comes to UI figures.
 
#36 ·
I don't know if there will be a collapse. I just believe it to be more likely than ever. What is significant is that if it does occur, I don't know the nature of what it will be!

Military takeover?
Civilian coup? (don't get any ideas, Obamatron)
anarcy?

I don't know. These will all be fast, though, and the last will be most dangerous to you and I and our families. You'll be amazed how many citizens will look at anarchy as license to loot, rape, murder. If food ever stops being delivered to the cities, for ANY reason, you get into your safehouse/bunker/BOL/out of dodge right away.

The first two are only dangerous to me as I will fight them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Beatupoldcop
#40 ·
Sigh, for argument's sake, let's say the unemp rate is 17%. (calling someone unemployed when they work part time is a real stretch). That's still significantly lower than the almost 30% during the Depression. Nothing to celebrate, but a far cry from where it has been in the past.

Debt to GDP is almost 50% lower than it was during ww2. Japan has a debt ratio twice ours yet they haven't collapsed.

The US dollar IS gaining on the Euro.

Savings are increasing, and private debt is decreasing. That is absolutely relevant, and calling it a red herring is bogus.

Again, what specifically is going to cause a collapse any time soon. Don't underestimate the government's ability to inflate away liabilities. They can, have, and will continue to do so.
 
#42 ·
Sigh, for argument's sake, let's say the unemp rate is 17%. (calling someone unemployed when they work part time is a real stretch). That's still significantly lower than the almost 30% during the Depression. Nothing to celebrate, but a far cry from where it has been in the past. Debt to GDP is almost 50% lower than it was during ww2. Japan has a debt ratio twice ours yet they haven't collapsed.
Even the government recognizes unemployment during the Great Depression at or above 25%. We're there. During WW2, we had a manufacturing base to make things for export to our war allies. The manufacturing base is GONE. No service economy has EVER returned from depression. Not ONE.

The US dollar IS gaining on the Euro. Savings are increasing, and private debt is decreasing. That is absolutely relevant, and calling it a red herring is bogus.
Ask America why they are saving instead of paying their bills. There are numerous polls out there. Your implication is that Americans have more money to save, over and above their costs of living. That is not the case. Ask America why debt is decreasing. More polls. It's called bankruptcy. Read it up.

What will you say if the World bank and Asia remove the USD as the currency of choice for balancing their books? Does it mean nothing to you they have already spoken of doing this, when they have not ever before? Does it mean nothing to you that China has refused to buy more US debt (treasuries) leaving only ourselves to buy debt from ourselves? Does this not spike you to concern?

Again, what specifically is going to cause a collapse any time soon. Don't underestimate the government's ability to inflate away liabilities. They can, have, and will continue to do so.
Inflating also takes away the ability to make a living, since wages are not maintained to stay in step with inflation. You have to read the history of the Great Depression to see what the banks and govt did before, during and after the GD to see the parallel to what they are doing now. Then, you might see lights coming on.
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top