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Old 02-09-2014, 11:38 AM
katielyn katielyn is online now
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Default China's April 29 Announcement could it



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spell doom for the US dollar.

I just read something that I wanted to get informed opinion on. This article was from a financial newsletter so I take it with a grain of salt but their opinion does seem to support what little bit of news that trickles down.

Basically it boils down to that the US has sold most of the gold it holds in safekeeping for other countries and that when China announces on April 29 how much gold reserves they hold it will be apparent to these other countries where that gold China now holds came from. And that we (the US) has very little gold left.

That announcement will bring down the house of cards that the FED has built and the US government and the FRN will lose the trust factor in the currency. The result is the dollar will be dumped as a safe haven and the world will look to PM.

This article plays up the fear factor but I do think they make some good points about buying gold and silver.

I think many of us here suspect that the US has been selling off the gold over many years so that doesn't come as a shock; at least to me it doesn't. What would shock me though is these other countries dumping their investments in the US dollar wholesale as that would crash their economy as well as ours. From my viewpoint it makes more sense to slowly distance yourself from exposure to the dollar until it has reached a point where other currencies can take up the slack.

That is unless you are deliberating trying to crash the world's economy.

They make a point of saying that silver is the better investment.

My questions are: 1. Is there such a thing as an April 29 announcement by China. 2. If there is such an announcement what impact will it have 3. Is it the tipping point?

They emphasize heavily that we are broke that it is costing more to finance the debt. Some mention was made of 3% interest on treasury notes I think. If we have been selling gold we don't own to finance our debt what are the repercussions when that is widely known.

I think we have to consider that Obama's MyIra a precursor to an IRA/401K conversion to government securities. Confiscation.

I'm on disability and don't have much free money to throw around but I am thinking that investing in as much silver as I can buy before that date would at the least be a good hedge. If nothing happens and silvers goes sideways then I can cash out and go as planned from there. But if the unthinkable happens then I have a small nest egg.

Like I say I take investment letters where they are selling you on a subscription with a grain of salt but this prediction makes sense to me. And I don't see a lot of downside if it doesn't happen.

What do you all think? I use silver because I can't afford gold but am I crazy for considering this strategy?

Thanks in advance

Katielyn
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Old 02-09-2014, 12:02 PM
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http://www.shanghaidaily.com/busines.../shdaily.shtml

There is some truth to it. The date of April 29 is significant in that it is just prior to the Chinese labor day holiday which opens May 1, and last through May 3. Historically, they will drop various financial announcements in and around that time frame.
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Old 02-09-2014, 01:10 PM
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Default Thanks that answers

cwi555 that answers one question that the date is probably real. But if China announces it has accumulated a lot of gold in the last 5 years will that cause Germany to make waves? I understand they are having problems with the US transferring their gold back to Germany. That is just one instance.

Thanks again

Katielyn


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Originally Posted by cwi555 View Post
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/busines.../shdaily.shtml

There is some truth to it. The date of April 29 is significant in that it is just prior to the Chinese labor day holiday which opens May 1, and last through May 3. Historically, they will drop various financial announcements in and around that time frame.
Old 02-09-2014, 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by katielyn View Post
cwi555 that answers one question that the date is probably real. But if China announces it has accumulated a lot of gold in the last 5 years will that cause Germany to make waves? I understand they are having problems with the US transferring their gold back to Germany. That is just one instance.

Thanks again

Katielyn
I don't think Germany is going to make any waves one way or another. If they were going to do so, they already would have. They were delivered ~5% of the gold they requested that 'belonged to them', and when delivered, they were handed a line about the original gold couldn't be transferred, that they had to melt it down and recast it. Really??

In my opinion;
The gold wasn't there, and shortly after the initial request, the Feds started shaking the gold tree, pulling out all the stops to get the price down so that they could buy enough to send what little they did send. I believe if Germany were going to make any waves, they would have done so then.

The real story in my eyes is the on going silent war between the BRICS countries attempt to usurp the dollars reserve status, and those who back the bretton woods agreement. Germany is in hook line and sinker with the latter.
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Old 02-09-2014, 01:30 PM
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So its a good time to buy the Yuan???
Old 02-09-2014, 01:42 PM
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It is no secret to anyone who follows gold that China has been buying tons of it for years.

The newsletter you received is terror tactics for the novice to get all flustered and dump a bunch of fiat with them on a knee jerk reaction. Don't do that. Like any new en-devour, start with baby steps and learn. Set up a dollar cost averaging way of buying PMs that you can afford, and afford to lose. Just like investing in stocks, if you buy consistently over a period of time, regularly, religiously, you will hit the lows more consistently and come out with an average. Trying to understand and time the silver and dollar markets in this artificial environment is insanity defined.

I speak from experience. A lot of it has been expensive and bad experience.
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tailwinds...

Disclaimer: The information I provide is my unaffiliated opinion and not reliable as financial advice. Past performance guarantees SHTF.
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Old 02-09-2014, 01:55 PM
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Katielyn, I completely understand your concern. It's getting hard to know who - or what information - to trust these days. I do watch the financial news pretty close and it's getting harder and harder to not just react and do something I could very well regret, in the not too distant future.

Even buying silver will have a risk associated with it. For those of us stacking, the risk is that down the road - what we can convert the silver to, IF we can convert it in the future - could be less than we have invested in it. That's a lower risk - to my way of thinking, than losing value in my investment accounts. Even in the old cycle of boom/bust, you could be sure that some years - those investments would lose their underlying value for awhile, before trending back up again.

I'm worried that this "recovery" is still a hangover of sorts, from 2008 and that there's no real "up" to the economy on it's way. Not before things lurch another step or 10 lower. People making monetary policy - especially on the gov side - seem to have failed Econ 101, and hold a grudge about it. They seem determined to do all the wrong things, and almost seem intent on destroying the US economy - wiping out business completely - except for their cronies, who financially support them.

Assuming China does "come clean" and announce even more gold reserves than people are currently estimating, I don't think it will have much impact except in the alternative financial community. There won't much media coverage; very little notice paid to it all; no congressional investigations. Germany sorta has to keep playing "the game" - since it's bankrolled a lot of the EU bailouts. I did note that Germany is currently rebuilding it's military, fwiw. I'm thinking they realize that they may find their fair-weather friends will leave them in a position to have to fend for themselves.

But that's where we ALL are, now, isn't it? So, it's up to us to do our own due diligence, discuss our ideas with others - and if there are weaknesses in the ideas - to shoot the holes wide open, so we're prevented from making a big oops.

What I'm doing is a "some of everything" plan: investments, IRAs, stacking gold/silver, (and beans & bullets & seeds, too)... and doing what I can reduce expenses. The biggest expense for most people (apart from mortgages/car loans) will be fuel & power. Its time to audit my house and reduce my heat/ac bill.
Old 02-09-2014, 02:00 PM
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So its a good time to buy the Yuan???
I would say no. It is probably the worst time possible in my opinion.

China is set for defaulting, and in fact, reads like it's deliberate. They started their own quantitative easing on steroids about the time the feds refused to back off of theirs back in 09/10 time frame. They have run up a massive debt, which seems counter intuitive until you study the culture and mentality.

So what have they done with all that money? They have built massive electrical energy resources, dozens of empty cities, stored massive quantities of resources, purchased reams of natural gas rights, built and building massive LNG infrastructure, massively accelerated their food growth programs, built large quantities of shipping vessels, thrown money hand over fist at their space program accelerating to the previous 60's level that NASA once held, and the list goes on.

A prepper will recognize what they are doing. A wall street type is not likely going to be able add that particular equation. They are within a year of being able to tell the world to pack sand.

Are they just storing for hard times, or is this planned? What would it do to the rest of the world if they pulled that particular pin?

How about the Russians, Brazilians, Indians, S. Africans? Their network is specifically set up to self sustain. They would suffer at first, but then again, all of them have already done that.

Food for thought.
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Old 02-09-2014, 04:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cwi555 View Post
I would say no. It is probably the worst time possible in my opinion.
I'm curious how you see this playing out. The renminbi doesn't float on the market yet, the value is set by policy makers at the PBOC. The renminbi has been appreciating in value while the presses are running. I believe the PBOC may be working under the understanding that they need to get a ton more renminbi out into circulation before they have hope of becoming one of the few to contribute to the SDR basket. Of course, there are numerous trade union agreements recently too which certainly requires them to print cash so trade partners can do business with them.
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Old 02-09-2014, 06:07 PM
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Thanks guys and gals for your thoughts. I'm not trying to time the market or anything like that. On second thought maybe I am. And I'm not informed enough to see what is going to happen or when.

I believe this letter was pushing fear but I also believe that this was a first for a date that I can verify. I've had these type of letters give a date and tell me that this is a game changer for "these three companies that will signal a new..." and pick your poison as to the result they are predicting. In those other instances the references were too vague for me to take seriously.

This time if even remotely true I can see that the results might cause silver prices to rise. But if I had the money I'd invest in tangible goods to ride out any financial storm. I still would if I had any place to store it but I don't.

Buying silver until the summer is a short term strategy for me. I view it this way; if the US economy goes belly up quickly chances are I will to. In the last year I've been able to save a little so the joke would be on me if those dollars became worth less than they are now while I'm setting on them.

I want to make a few improvements around the homestead and this could help make that nearer or in the case of a meltdown event might keep me upright until things settled down.

But even if I do that I don't know what kind of silver to buy; bullion or coins or which coins to buy.
Old 02-09-2014, 07:16 PM
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Well, if you've got time to read 10,000 posts - complete with occasional digressions - the Silver trend thread stickied above - has plenty of info about how and what to buy. We don't bite!
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Old 02-09-2014, 10:54 PM
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Since we have the petrodollar, im not sure anyone would care about our lack of gold
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Old 02-10-2014, 03:57 PM
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Without even reading the article, I'm going to confidently say...nothing will happen.

This is nothing but another elaborate prediction about the end of the US/world economy, this time with the date of April 29 attached to it.

Remember when China was going to default on something a few weeks ago, and all of you claimed it would cause the world economy to implode? Yeah...how did that work out?

So feel free to ignore this silliness just like all the other garbage scare tactics posted here every few days.
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Old 02-10-2014, 08:26 PM
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Our gold reserve is rather irrelevant in relation to the size of our budget or debt. It has little practical meaning in our national finances. It is only, perhaps(?), of symbolic significance.
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Old 02-10-2014, 09:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
Without even reading the article, I'm going to confidently say...nothing will happen.

This is nothing but another elaborate prediction about the end of the US/world economy, this time with the date of April 29 attached to it.

Remember when China was going to default on something a few weeks ago, and all of you claimed it would cause the world economy to implode? Yeah...how did that work out?

So feel free to ignore this silliness just like all the other garbage scare tactics posted here every few days.
I was thinking the same thing myself.
Oh, boy were in for it now....yet again, and again, and again.
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Old 02-11-2014, 12:04 AM
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Default Sacajawea I have to ask

because it is bothering me to no end. I take it that that the 10,000 posts comment is that I've read 10,000 posts on here. I haven't been able to find that information anywhere and even if there were such a stat line it can't take into account those posts I skip over as in the case of outdated and resurrected threads.

I'm genuinely curious and like Peter Falk in Columbo it seems to be the little details that worry me.

The 10,000 number may have nothing to do with how many posts I've read and means something else entirely because I have no ideal how many posts I've read. Just curious and thanks.

Katielyn


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Originally Posted by Sacajawea View Post
Well, if you've got time to read 10,000 posts - complete with occasional digressions - the Silver trend thread stickied above - has plenty of info about how and what to buy. We don't bite!
Old 02-11-2014, 02:00 AM
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If you keep reading things that confirm your own hypothesis and disregard opposing opinions, you get a self-fulfilling prophecy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_theorem
Old 02-11-2014, 06:57 AM
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Naw; I was talking about the number of posts in the Silver thread stickied at the top of this forum...

http://www.survivalistboards.com/sho...d.php?t=233538

This is TxFlyboy's thread - and while it meanders some off topic sometimes - there is SOOO much good info about the PM markets in there, it's well worth reading 10,000 posts to learn things you might not learn anywhere else.
Old 02-11-2014, 07:37 AM
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I don't believe anything will come from it but at the same time it doesn't hurt to make some preparations in case if would be something major.
Old 02-11-2014, 08:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by katielyn View Post
because it is bothering me to no end. I take it that that the 10,000 posts comment is that I've read 10,000 posts on here. I haven't been able to find that information anywhere and even if there were such a stat line it can't take into account those posts I skip over as in the case of outdated and resurrected threads.

I'm genuinely curious and like Peter Falk in Columbo it seems to be the little details that worry me.

The 10,000 number may have nothing to do with how many posts I've read and means something else entirely because I have no ideal how many posts I've read. Just curious and thanks.

Katielyn
In the 'Silver is Trending' thread we have discussed every aspect of PMs, especially silver in specific along with all of the tangents. Go back several months or to a date you will remember and start there, then go back a little further.

If you do some reading on that thread you will more than likely answer any question you might have.
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