Skeptics and Survival

[The Heretic]

Originally Posted by TinfoilSurvivalist

This is absolutely true and worth thinking about. However, if it turns out that people who prepare are wrong, well then, no harm done.

Some people use the same argument for being a Christian; if they are wrong and there is no God, then "no harm done". But that isn't a good reason to be a Christian.

The harm that is done is that some (many?) preppers go off the deep end. They become convinced that catastrophe is imminent and inevitable. They forget to live a "normal" life and live as if their life as they know it will end next week. It doesn't take much reading of these forums to see more than one person who seems to live like that.

We've got people wh are asking whether they should, or saying they will, go into debt (or not pay off debt) so they can prep, when probably the most important prep they can do is to pay off debt as an income interruption or other financial emergency is the most likely SHTF scenario they will encounter. And then we have people egging them on saying "yeah, spend all your money now because next week we will get with hyper-inflation and your money will be worthless".

The odds that a specific situation (hurricane, drought, nuke, etc.) will occur is low. The odds that SOMETHING bad will happen during my lifetime is high. I prepare for that nameless SOMETHING.

More or less true.

[TinfoilSurvivalist]

Originally Posted by The Heretic

We've got people wh are asking whether they should, or saying they will, go into debt (or not pay off debt) so they can prep, when probably the most important prep they can do is to pay off debt as an income interruption or other financial emergency is the most likely SHTF scenario they will encounter. And then we have people egging them on saying "yeah, spend all your money now because next week we will get with hyper-inflation and your money will be worthless".

That's a good point. It goes back to "most likely scenario" I think. I'm more likely to lose my job than to be hit by a hurricane for instance. Still, I try to prepare for both. The best prep in my mind is becoming as self-sufficient as possible. That will help you in a hurricane, job loss, or any other scenario.

[The Heretic]

Originally Posted by TinfoilSurvivalist

That's a good point. It goes back to "most likely scenario" I think. I'm more likely to lose my job than to be hit by a hurricane for instance. Still, I try to prepare for both. The best prep in my mind is becoming as self-sufficient as possible. That will help you in a hurricane, job loss, or any other scenario.

Certainly.

I can't count how many times I have been unemployed - if I count the times before I went into the military, it is probably in the dozens. Since college I was steadily employed for ten years before I got laid off, and then 6 more times since then. I may get laid off again this year or next (the writing is more or less on the wall as the project I am working on is slowly being phased out).

Prepping (water, food, shelter) helps, but if most people still have to pay a mortgage or rent, then having six months of food and water isn't going to help a lot if you don't have the means to acquire shelter.

Even in an complete collapse, there will be some period of time where the bank/landlord will still want their pound of flesh, and the last thing anybody needs is to be evicted during SHTF.

So living on the edge financially just to buy more ammo/food/etc. is not a good way to prep - yet many seem to think it is. Some seem to buy into the fantasy that they will wake up some morning, S*** will have hit the fan, they they can then play Rambo/Jeremiah Johnson/et. al., and they will have few worries compared to modern life.

[Prepping]

I wouldn't trust a 'shepherd' that declared skeptics bad.

He wants a flock of just sheeple.

He's doing something wrong. Dig deeper.

Money, sex, and/or addiction. something is there...he's dirty.




A good minister, rabbi, or priest would say 'follow your heart', not follow the herd.

My skepticism would be heighened by that self serving sermon. Dig deeper...he's dirty.

[Catherine_MT]

Originally Posted by woozy

We are skeptical because we are engulfed by a veritable Tsunami of BS.

Thank you.

That is one reason... there are others.

Catherine

[Writer's Block]

Well here is my two bits.

I was one of the guys who accelerated their preps for Y2K. I did a lot of research, contacted a lot of experts, and many of them felt there was good odds something may happen. I assumed that meant there was a chance that "the worst" could be that thing that happened and I upgraded and increased my preps in case it did. When nothing happened, it did not make me believe less that anything could, or regret my preps, it made me think "Whew. Guess we dodged a bullet that time. Lucky."

In fact, given my feelings on the need for what I call a "global reset", I was a bit disappointed Y2K fizzled.

When 2012 was coming up, well, I knew about it back in 2008 so I had done research and such. There was very little among the original Mayan sources (one set of glyphs at one site...not at the site of the so oft depicted calendar) that suggest apocalypse. Yes, many of the associations with end of ages are book ended by huge disasters in Mayan history, but the predominant thing about 2012 was that the next age was going to be so entirely different from the one before that humans may measure time differently. Maybe an apocalypse, maybe just a huge social change of mind. THAT is why many believed the calendar ended.

Regardless, I was worried for the same reason as Y2K; it was not the prophesy that scared me, it was the way people might react to it. I was honestly worried that the actions of some nuts, or the sheeple at large, might actually set off a SHTF event at 2012, so I again (starting 2010) increased my prep efforts and such to be ready for 2012. I made sure the member of my prep group who works out of town would be here then, and that I was going to be here not with relatives. I made sure everyone was up on our security plans and such. Two nights before "THE DATE" I loaded all the handgun mags and such, and the night of I loaded the pump gun.

Nothing happened. Again, I did not feel disillusioned of like I was deceived. I was relieved, and felt "Well, at least if something had happened, I was better prepared than I was in 2000". Heck, I said words to that effect to the members of my prep group.

I don't let "non-events" dissuade or otherwise deter me. I don't even consider them "crying wolf". I consider them something to keep an eye on and, when they don't happen, a learning experience/practice to brush up for the time it gets all too real.

[Barbosa]

Skepticism is a healthy attitude. We're all skeptics to some degree or another. It's not skepticism that gets people in trouble, so to speak. It's the willingness to keep (including, but not limited to plain stupidity and willful ignorance) bias in general and various prejudices that prevent critical thinking to a logical outcome.

Your minister was right, but only partially right:

Someday we will be told something true that we need to know, and we won't believe it.

We are also told things that are false and believe them. And we are told a thing may be true or false and due to a lack of information we can't make up our minds one way or the other.

Once there is sufficient good evidence that a belief (cherished or not) or a proposition is no longer true or unsustainable due to lack of evidence or no good evidence and one continues to hold said belief or proposition, that person has become deluded. Sadly, this is all too common and prevalent in our every day fabric of society, including survival-ism.

Man holds no boundaries for self deception.

[Moccasin]

Originally Posted by goose3

Yeah....the similarities between my town and the US Government are striking.

The difference is that at the federal level, the people "in charge" are getting all sorts of perks by continuing things the way they are.

At the local level, the local officials aren't getting rich, and certainly have no perks. It's why I am amazed--you'd think that, absent the corruption that typifies Washington, they'd be more inclined to do the responsible thing.

I can understand perfectly why local officials would be doing this, I've seen it in my own county and city. The Commissioners, the Mayor, they know they don't have money to spend; but when they try to cut services, the public goes nuts, pickets and writes letters and threatens a storm. The public doesn't want to pay more taxes, mind you, but they INSIST services must be provided and even expanded. Those elected officials who stay true to the math and cut costs are vilified and voted out, to be replaced by people who've promised somehow they can defy fiscal reality and spend all the money people want. And, all too often, try to do it. It's not the elected officials, local, state, or Federal, who are to blame for this mess.

It's the damn fool American public.

[goose3]

Originally Posted by Writer's Block

Well here is my two bits.

I was one of the guys who accelerated their preps for Y2K. I did a lot of research, contacted a lot of experts, and many of them felt there was good odds something may happen. I assumed that meant there was a chance that "the worst" could be that thing that happened and I upgraded and increased my preps in case it did. When nothing happened, it did not make me believe less that anything could, or regret my preps, it made me think "Whew. Guess we dodged a bullet that time. Lucky."

In fact, given my feelings on the need for what I call a "global reset", I was a bit disappointed Y2K fizzled.

I've long thought that the reason Y2K *did* fizzle was precisely because people *did* take it seriously. People were worried, so a lot of money and effort was poured into ensuring computer systems and software were upgraded to avoid the problems.

Many people, even today, scoff at Y2K as one more example of the reason(s) preppers are ignoramuses. And yet, it was exactly the preparation (for Y2K) that prevented a catastrophe.

Today, unlike prior to Y2K, preppers are scoffed at, ridiculed and vilified. Non-Preppers, rather than take the reasons for prepping seriously (as people generally did prior to Y2K), instead ignore the warnings.


That's why I think that if something happens it will be far worse--people will scream, will want to know why "they" didn't do the things necessary to prevent "it" from happening, and lord knows they aren't getting ready for it.

Unlike what many did prior to Y2K. In this, the OP's pastor is correct--people aren't listening. They know better than to do that.

[TinfoilSurvivalist]

Originally Posted by The Heretic

... but if most people still have to pay a mortgage or rent, then having six months of food and water isn't going to help a lot if you don't have the means to acquire shelter.

I don't disagree at all. One thing I wanted to point out for people to think about though is: it takes a LONG time to foreclose on a house or evict a tenant. So if things start looking really bad, I'm diverting my mortgage money and other debt payments to preps. It would have to be a true SHTF scenario though.

[The Heretic]

Originally Posted by TinfoilSurvivalist

I don't disagree at all. One thing I wanted to point out for people to think about though is: it takes a LONG time to foreclose on a house or evict a tenant. So if things start looking really bad, I'm diverting my mortgage money and other debt payments to preps. It would have to be a true SHTF scenario though.

It depends on the circumstances.

Foreclosure, yes, it can take a while, especially since the laws are fairly uniform and mostly federal. However, you have a lot more at stake and it is worth a lot more in the typical situation and the typical owner, to try and hang onto the real estate if at all possible. I am a lot more likely to find myself in that situation than I am to have to deal with a SHTF scenario, plus my house is my shelter and my BOL, not to mention what I hope to be part of my retirement plans in one way or another, so I am going to do my utmost to hang onto it and not endanger that chance by putting money into preps if I need that money for the mortgage.

Fortunately, I have enough for 6 months living expenses, and if I were to be unemployed I would likely get six months UI benes - hopefully giving me one year of breathing room. If this happened tomorrow I would just about be able to make it to the point where I can pull money from my 401K without penalty, which would then enable me to hang onto the property for another 4 to 5 years. In that time I think I could probably sell the property for at least what the equity I have into it. And that is assuming I never find another job, which I think I could. All that without touching the non-financial preps I have stocked up.

Every day I keep my job is another two days in the future I can survive - financially anyway - assuming the world doesn't end.

As for evicting renters; the laws vary by state. Here in Orygun you can be evicted within 30 days - they need no reason - assuming you don't have a lease. All the landlord has to do is give you notice and you will have 30 days to vacate. If you are running a meth lab on the property, or something like that, or any other valid reason for the landlord to assert that you are seriously damaging or endangering the property or other tenants, and you can be evicted in 24 hours. If you violate the terms of the rental agreement, the time limits might be shorter than 30 days too (IIRC).

[Writer's Block]

Originally Posted by goose3

I've long thought that the reason Y2K *did* fizzle was precisely because people *did* take it seriously. People were worried, so a lot of money and effort was poured into ensuring computer systems and software were upgraded to avoid the problems.

Abso-FREAKIN-lutely! I believe that the efforts made to ensure it did NOT become an issue were the exact reason it was not. As well, we only know that the S did not HTF that night...does not mean that it was not close, narrowly averted, etc.

Many people, even today, scoff at Y2K as one more example of the reason(s) preppers are ignoramuses. And yet, it was exactly the preparation (for Y2K) that prevented a catastrophe.

I hear that all the time: "Y2K was a non-event" or "Heh, I KNEW Y2K was going to be nothing even before God did..." or variations on those themes. I cry Bull Pucky on those sorts of things. I was very well connected to the efforts relating to Y2K prevention at the time. It WAS NOT any sort of "non-event" and anyone who claims they knew, 100%, at the time is lying. If the computer bug had not brought it all down, there was a real chance FEAR of it was going to cause rushes on banks and such and do what the computer issue did not.

Today, unlike prior to Y2K, preppers are scoffed at, ridiculed and vilified. Non-Preppers, rather than take the reasons for prepping seriously (as people generally did prior to Y2K), instead ignore the warnings.

What I love about it is how every time the apocalypse du jour comes along the media whips up a heady froth and all of a sudden people who could not spell 'preparedness' a week before are all about stocking supplies, food, water, fuel, etc... If a knowledgeable, informed person (such as a prepper) tells me, its malarkey; if the Discovery Channel, let alone FOX, does a special about it, well heck people time to build your ark because tribulation is right at hand...TV said so and if its good enough to raise my kids, its good enough to advise me of danger.

That's why I think that if something happens it will be far worse--people will scream, will want to know why "they" didn't do the things necessary to prevent "it" from happening, and lord knows they aren't getting ready for it.

Oh yeah. I KNOW I have friends and relatives that patronize me about prepping. They scoff at my preps and lack of funds while they take trips all over and buy the latest compu-gadgets. When it all comes down, and the emergency strikes, two things will happen:

1) They will ask themselves "Oh crud...what did WB tell me to do if this happened?"

2) They will try to come to my place or remember where they think I live expecting me to help them.

Unlike what many did prior to Y2K. In this, the OP's pastor is correct--people aren't listening. They know better than to do that.

Just because people are not listening, as preppers we should not stop trying to get people to listen. A better prepared community is better for all of us so there is a built in, let alone humanitarian, benefit to guiding others to prep. We are the educated, knowledgeable percentage of the population. If we give up trying to educate the rest, we have no one to blame for the starving masses of howling barbarian looters except ourselves.

[Staxx]

Originally Posted by Crusoe

This is why people die in their homes after watching a hurricane approaching their homes for the last week. They are skeptical. They don't believe it can happen to them. In their minds, the true threats are lumped into the same category as 2012. Then, when the disaster does happen, and they don't even have 3 days of food and water on hand as recommended by FEMA, they blame everyone else.

I must disagree with you here.

In my opinion, these folks don't die because they are skeptical.

They die because they are foolish.

[The Heretic]

Originally Posted by Staxx

I must disagree with you here.

In my opinion, these folks don't die because they are skeptical.

They die because they are foolish.

Indeed, I am skeptical of a lot of things I am told, but I prepare for those things I have seen happen time and again; unemployment, income interruption, economic downturns, medical and financial emergencies, floods, windstorms, snowstorms, even the occasional volcanic eruption and earthquake.

Although doomsayers have been saying that there will be an socio-economic collapse "any day now" for 40 years (at least that was when I first heard about it), I haven't seen one. Ditto with black helicopters, concentration camps and so on. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but after decades of people crying wolf on these scenarios I am a bit skeptical.

I see the government getting more powerful and Bush Jr. invoking the "War on Terrorism" resulting in secret warrants, secret police, secret courts, secret prisons, the US gov kidnapping people, taking them overseas and torturing them (or giving them to others to be tortured) - yeah, that has me worried, but I really doubt that our government would engineer some kind of calamity that would result in a collapse - it just isn't in their interest. Slowly acquire more and more power and slowly take it away from the citizenry, yeah, that they would do and more importantly are doing.

[bookgrl.ph]

Thank you Heretic.

[TinfoilSurvivalist]

Originally Posted by Staxx

I must disagree with you here.
In my opinion, these folks don't die because they are skeptical.
They die because they are foolish.

I think it's more accurately "normalcy bias" also known as "it can't happen to me". It's a psychological issue - a side effect of being (and I hate to use this term) sheeple.

[themadride]

Skepticism and foolishness are trends that extend far beyond disasters and the normalcy bias.

The normalcy bias is perhaps one type of foolishness.

Nevertheless Skepticism is not bad. A skeptic hears AN INDIVIDUAL tell them that THEY READ in National Geographic about solar storms. Is it wrong to at the very least doubt the random individual passing along the story? Surely a smart skeptic would at least go read the article for himself. Perhaps even research the topic of the article.

Being skeptical is smart. IGNORING EVIDENCE is stupid.

Extrapolate that to economics, politics, history, disaster/prep, relationships...you name it.

[themadride]

Originally Posted by The Heretic

Indeed, I am skeptical of a lot of things I am told, but I prepare for those things I have seen happen time and again; unemployment, income interruption, economic downturns, medical and financial emergencies, floods, windstorms, snowstorms, even the occasional volcanic eruption and earthquake.

Although doomsayers have been saying that there will be an socio-economic collapse "any day now" for 40 years (at least that was when I first heard about it), I haven't seen one. Ditto with black helicopters, concentration camps and so on. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but after decades of people crying wolf on these scenarios I am a bit skeptical.

I see the government getting more powerful and Bush Jr. invoking the "War on Terrorism" resulting in secret warrants, secret police, secret courts, secret prisons, the US gov kidnapping people, taking them overseas and torturing them (or giving them to others to be tortured) - yeah, that has me worried, but I really doubt that our government would engineer some kind of calamity that would result in a collapse - it just isn't in their interest. Slowly acquire more and more power and slowly take it away from the citizenry, yeah, that they would do and more importantly are doing.

I like the way you think, except I would argue a few "decades" is a shockingly short period of time on which to base the likelyhood of something taking place.

[The Heretic]

Originally Posted by themadride

I like the way you think, except I would argue a few "decades" is a shockingly short period of time on which to base the likelyhood of something taking place.

True. But if you had a group of people (or a group of type of people) telling you for your whole adult life - 40 years - that something bad was going to happen "any day now" or "next year at the latest" and it never happened - yet, wouldn't you be a bit skeptical of their claims that doom was imminent and inevitable??

If you weren't skeptical by that time, then you are taking their claims on faith and not evidence.

[MattB4]

Originally Posted by The Heretic

True. But if you had a group of people (or a group of type of people) telling you for your whole adult life - 40 years - that something bad was going to happen "any day now" or "next year at the latest" and it never happened - yet, wouldn't you be a bit skeptical of their claims that doom was imminent and inevitable??

If you weren't skeptical by that time, then you are taking their claims on faith and not evidence.

One problem is that several disasters and financial troubles (bad things) have occurred over those 40 years of history. Tens of thousands of lives lost to natural disasters and fortunes lost to the financial ones. It is all too easy to think the disasters happening to others have no meaning. But using that thinking would mean that as long as you are alive and living comfortably that the SHTF has not happened. Even if everyone else is suffering bad things.

Many lost big in the housing bubble because they did not heed the warning signs. Many could have avoided dying in disasters if they took the warnings seriously. The danger of slow onslaught disasters is complacency.