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Old 12-27-2012, 01:40 PM
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Keep in mind if you just cant take the powdered milk then you can freeze milk for storage. I don't mind powdered milk but some really dislike it.
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Old 12-27-2012, 01:43 PM
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Id say stock up on fuel oil considering the east coast longshoremans strike might start Jan 1.


And TP, lots of TP.
Old 12-27-2012, 01:52 PM
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I don't see how food prices are tied to the "fiscal cliff". The drought and other issues, yes, the "cliff"? No.

Personally I strongly hope that they do nothing about the so-called "cliff"; the choice is:

a) Leave things alone (do nothing) and let the federal budget get cut back as intended and over the next decade or two we can maybe get to a point where we don't have a deficit. The pain will be short term and may cause us to go back into recession.

b) Do the cowardly thing and increase spending and but have a lot more long term pain when it comes time to pay the bills because our so called "leaders" can't lead.

They pass a bill to restrict spending and try to balance the budget, but every time it comes time to make a choice between living within our means and getting re-elected, they always choose getting re-elected.

Of course, we (the general population) are to blame too - we keep believing their lies and keep punishing the people do the right thing or tell us the truth. So we get what we deserve - or rather, for some of us, our children will pay for our cowardice and laziness.

Back to food - buy food now, whether it is due to drought or other factors (energy), food will only get more expensive as time goes on. It isn't goingto get any cheaper over the long term. You should also grow your own food.
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Old 12-27-2012, 01:59 PM
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Originally Posted by rsiros View Post
Mel... Anything you're making it a point to get before the new year?
We made sure and got our propane tanks filled. Gasoline is something else I think is at risk at least on the east side of the country of ridiculous price increases. Shipping disruptions would affect Venezualan oil, possibly have some affect on the oil movement in the Gulf of Mexico due to the dock strike (if it happens on the 30th.) Any perishables that we get from Central and South America could be affected. There are docking problems already in Guam as they are seeing the effect of shippers trying to avoid East Coast and Gulf of Mexico dock problems. This isn't a "doomsday" thing, I was buying groceries 35 years ago when the last major dock strike hit this country. No one could move product on or off the ships, the docks, or the storage warehouses around them. Rotten food and produce was shoved by the ton off ships and produce prices went through the roof. Things that are shipped in from overseas started showing severe shortages in the stores. That was 35 years back from where we are today in how much we ship in vs. produce ourselves. Think of anything we get imported from Europe, Central America and South America - they could all be affected.

In the last couple of months I've been topping off all of the supplies that we could possibly do. It is a potential economic mess we've got twirling around here right now and since food prices increase when there isn't a reason, I see no hope for them for the next few months. Between the U.S. debt load, the mandatory spending cuts, the continuing drought our major farm areas are suffering, the sell-off of livestock this fall (which will kill us, price-wise next year), the best I can say about food supplies and prices is, "Hang on to your hats, boys, it's going to be a wild ride."

The things I've based my shopping priorities around have been to make sure we have as much as possible on hand for: Groceries: meat - it's all going to get more expensive as feed prices go up, dairy, any frozen vegetables I can get on sale and dehydrate (and it runs every day), and grains. Daily living - underwear and socks for everyone, everything else we can mend, buy used and/or do without but me sewing underwear -NOT (think the bloomers from the late 1800's, and that's the guys), and my sock darning skills cause blisters on my husband's feet just to think about it. First aid supplies and regular over the counter medicines are something I've topped off. Backup air filters for the house, car, and truck, oil for the vehicles, tractor, and generator. Laundry detergent will get more expensive I believe (just a gut feeling.) The myriad little parts we use to keep a house going like toilet flapper replacements I've gone over my list and the house with a notebook AGAIN.

I just looked and my "still to get for this round" list is: more cheese, smoked sausage, pepperoni, chicken wire, chickens, and two truck loads of manure. My dearest husband is balking at the manure, he says he knows who will end up knee deep in ... He's not too interested in the chicken idea either since the last one we had I brought in the house in a guinnea pig cage when it got too hot outside during the summer. (When she'd get too hot, she'd peck on the door and I'd bring her in until later in the afternoon. Husband was not impressed! The chicken liked it though. He convinced me to re-home her before winter got there, kept muttering about me letting her nest in the bathtub so her feathers wouldn't chill. )

BTW, in case you can't tell, I can't do short answers. I was the one in college that when the prof. passed out True/False tests, he always said "And yes Mel you can write on the back. " Hope I didn't bore you too bad.
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Old 12-27-2012, 02:01 PM
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I'd be more concerned about imports in the immediate future. If the dock workers strike as planned, everything that comes in via a port is going to jump in price. I need to buy some more bulk coffee....

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/27/bu...qMTj6dE9oo96sw
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Old 12-27-2012, 02:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Mels thinkingitover View Post
We made sure and got our propane tanks filled. Gasoline is something else I think is at risk at least on the east side of the country of ridiculous price increases. Shipping disruptions would affect Venezualan oil, possibly have some affect on the oil movement in the Gulf of Mexico due to the dock strike (if it happens on the 30th.) Any perishables that we get from Central and South America could be affected. There are docking problems already in Guam as they are seeing the effect of shippers trying to avoid East Coast and Gulf of Mexico dock problems. This isn't a "doomsday" thing, I was buying groceries 35 years ago when the last major dock strike hit this country. No one could move product on or off the ships, the docks, or the storage warehouses around them. Rotten food and produce was shoved by the ton off ships and produce prices went through the roof. Things that are shipped in from overseas started showing severe shortages in the stores. That was 35 years back from where we are today in how much we ship in vs. produce ourselves. Think of anything we get imported from Europe, Central America and South America - they could all be affected.

In the last couple of months I've been topping off all of the supplies that we could possibly do. It is a potential economic mess we've got twirling around here right now and since food prices increase when there isn't a reason, I see no hope for them for the next few months. Between the U.S. debt load, the mandatory spending cuts, the continuing drought our major farm areas are suffering, the sell-off of livestock this fall (which will kill us, price-wise next year), the best I can say about food supplies and prices is, "Hang on to your hats, boys, it's going to be a wild ride."

The things I've based my shopping priorities around have been to make sure we have as much as possible on hand for: Groceries: meat - it's all going to get more expensive as feed prices go up, dairy, any frozen vegetables I can get on sale and dehydrate (and it runs every day), and grains. Daily living - underwear and socks for everyone, everything else we can mend, buy used and/or do without but me sewing underwear -NOT (think the bloomers from the late 1800's, and that's the guys), and my sock darning skills cause blisters on my husband's feet just to think about it. First aid supplies and regular over the counter medicines are something I've topped off. Backup air filters for the house, car, and truck, oil for the vehicles, tractor, and generator. Laundry detergent will get more expensive I believe (just a gut feeling.) The myriad little parts we use to keep a house going like toilet flapper replacements I've gone over my list and the house with a notebook AGAIN.

I just looked and my "still to get for this round" list is: more cheese, smoked sausage, pepperoni, chicken wire, chickens, and two truck loads of manure. My dearest husband is balking at the manure, he says he knows who will end up knee deep in ... He's not too interested in the chicken idea either since the last one we had I brought in the house in a guinnea pig cage when it got too hot outside during the summer. (When she'd get too hot, she'd peck on the door and I'd bring her in until later in the afternoon. Husband was not impressed! The chicken liked it though. He convinced me to re-home her before winter got there, kept muttering about me letting her nest in the bathtub so her feathers wouldn't chill. )

BTW, in case you can't tell, I can't do short answers. I was the one in college that when the prof. passed out True/False tests, he always said "And yes Mel you can write on the back. " Hope I didn't bore you too bad.
Lots of great information! You and Missjudged mentioned dehydrating frozen vegetables... I'll definitely be looking into that and I hope others do as well. I think I'm pretty well stocked in most other areas, although one can never have enough Kleen Heat. Thanks again!
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Old 12-27-2012, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Low_crawl View Post
I'd be more concerned about imports in the immediate future. If the dock workers strike as planned, everything that comes in via a port is going to jump in price. I need to buy some more bulk coffee....

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/27/bu...qMTj6dE9oo96sw
Yikes! Thanks for the reminder! Coffee!
Old 12-27-2012, 02:43 PM
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OH NO, this is how you all sounded before the GUNS and AMMO squeeze!

Now this may happen to foods too?

:-(
Old 12-27-2012, 02:57 PM
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I would think Cliff Bars would be good
Good choice lol.
Old 12-27-2012, 02:58 PM
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I'm freezing some milk, but nothing extreme. The price will only be high for a couple weeks maybe. (I hope)

It's like the Dec. 21, 2012 prophecy, or Y2K. Going "over the cliff" isn't going to be like the country just got nuked, with all of us living in a post-apocalyptic society like Mad Max or something. Things will level off, prices may be a bit higher than last year, but hey, that's inflation for ya. Does anyone think we'll see gas below $2 a gallon ever again, even though the price of oil should reflect that? Hell no.
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Old 12-27-2012, 03:06 PM
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I don't see how food prices are tied to the "fiscal cliff". The drought and other issues, yes, the "cliff"? No.

Back to food - buy food now, whether it is due to drought or other factors (energy), food will only get more expensive as time goes on. It isn't goingto get any cheaper over the long term. You should also grow your own food.
It's not the "cliff" that is the actual problem, it's the farm bill that is attached to it. If the farm bill or some kind of a farm bill is not passed, the farmers will not get any more subsidies. This alone will make prices go up very quickly. Most people who buy from stores do not know that the food cost is so cheap because the government covers part of the cost. That's why direct market farm food or co-op foods cost more--there's no government helping those people grow, process and get the food to the consumer.

Then there is the pricing formula that is the big thing that is holding costs down right now. See, ever since the early 1980s true cost of living has gone up much, much faster than wages. This was offset by the government creating a new pricing formula that keeps the cost of foods down. That will expire if not renewed in the farm bill, and with that people will not get their goberment discount that we have had for over a generation now.

This, more than anything may get the two sides together. See, people don't realize that the Arab spring was started because of the cost of food. In Egypt they were paying close to 60% of their income on food. Compare that to the U.S. paying 9 to 12 % of our income of food. When we will be paying more for food than we will for housing no one will not feel that and no one will get re-elected (they may get run out on a rail even).

So governments know that here in the US we live in this fantasy world of government control food prices. Everyone just thinks a farmer can get a gallon of milk from the grain to the cow to the inspector to the processing plant to the packaging plant to the trucks that carry it to all those plants to the store and to them for less than $4.00 a gallon. And never mind that all those people who work in all those places get paid. It's impossible without goverment help.

For me the cost of dairy going up will be a great thing. Finally the big milk producers will have to work as hard as we small ones do and they won't bend their hats at the mailbox looking for their government checks. People will actually start demanding that they can buy food from us again because people will actually have to start paying for what their food is worth not what the government says it is worth. And lots of people who claim they hate the government and then buy government subsidized food can start putting their money where their mouth is.

Having said that, unless congress is as clueless as most Americans are, they are not going to let that farm bill not be passed. The Arab spring will look like a walk in the park if well armed but clueless Americans suddenly find they have to chose between eating and paying rent. People like their welfare checks, they just like them to be a bit more hidden.

P.S. I agree with you that people should start growing their own food. Then they might actually wonder how food costs so little in the stores (unless the farm bill doesn't get passed--then it will cost a lot more).
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Old 12-27-2012, 03:23 PM
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OH NO, this is how you all sounded before the GUNS and AMMO squeeze!

Now this may happen to foods too?

:-(
The guns and ammo squeeze didn't really affect me, as I'm pretty comfortable with what I've accumulated and can ration what i have until (if) things calm down. But, the rush on guns and ammo made me see how quickly the things we take for granted can become scarce. That rush was caused by an unpredictable tragedy. This potential rush is very foreseeable, and I hope people are identifying the holes in their preps based on what could be happening in less than a week.
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Old 12-27-2012, 03:27 PM
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It's not the "cliff" that is the actual probem, it's the farm bill that is attatched to it. If the farm billor some kind of a farm bill is not passed the farmers will not get any more subsidies. This alone will make prices go up very quickly. Most people who buy from stores do not know that the food cost is so cheap because the government covers part of the cost. That's why direct market farm food or co-op foods cost more--there's no government helping those people.
Bear in mind that I was raised on a farm, came from a long line of farmers (all the way back from before when we came to this country in the late 1700s), I live among farmers, and so on. My dad had a subsidy or two when he was farming - it would be kind of silly not to take advantage of a crop subsidy when it is offered.

However, when I say that for the most part I think farm subsidies are not a good thing, I mean it, and I say that from the point of view of the little farmer. I understand that this may drive up food prices - but that is more or less a good thing; the typical citizen buying food will either pay for the true cost of the food, or pay for the hidden cost via their taxes. I am all for taxpayers paying the true cost of products and services up front rather than having the cost be hidden via a subsidy they pay for via taxes. Either way, they/we pay for the cost - there is no free lunch (in this case, it is literally "lunch").

I have long argued that with the rare exception, the government should not subsidize markets - not farms, not housing, not social programs, not energy, not charity/non-profits, etc.

Subsidies hide the cost of a good or service and over the long term do more harm than good.

In the case of farms, subsidies often benefit the large corp farms more than the small family farms, but some harm could come from defunding subsidies; small farms may be relying on a subsidy and go under or be consumed by a large farm corp. That would be bad, but not as bad as subsidies in general.

I agree with you about the politics - Blazing Saddles more or less summed it up:

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Old 12-27-2012, 03:38 PM
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If the subsidies stopped, and tax money was freed up, do you think that money would be returned to the people? Not a chance. It would be used for more Welfare, or kickbacks, or to pay for Planned Parenthood or something.
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Old 12-27-2012, 03:42 PM
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I sincerely doubt we will see any real price increases on food that would be directly tied to this fiscal cliff.

If anything, I think this cliff will have the opposite effect because "we the people" will have less money to spend, which should mean we will be more frugal and retailers will have to work harder, by offering better value and/or lower prices, to earn what little spending money we have left.

Beyond that, there are other forces at play, mainly the weather - droughts, flooding, storms, etc, that will have a much more significant impact on food pricing. These increases can be offset somewhat by either growing your own or stocking up now - before the current reserves run out.
Old 12-27-2012, 03:45 PM
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Yup, you hear it here first Mus, then we rub it in to any who dint pay attention.
Old 12-27-2012, 03:52 PM
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If the subsidies stopped, and tax money was freed up, do you think that money would be returned to the people? Not a chance. It would be used for more Welfare, or kickbacks, or to pay for Planned Parenthood or something.
EXACTLY. Any "savings" that can be had will go to some other (someone else's) cause.
Old 12-27-2012, 04:00 PM
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Regarding powdered milk.

I grew up drinking unpasteurized milk pretty much straight from the cow (I still remember seeing my grandfather every morning at 5:30, cross the road - the barn was on our side of the road - and walking to the barn to milk the Jersey cow we had when I was a kid). That included the cream which we rarely skimmed off.

So I like whole milk and even though there is more fat, I think it is better for many people, especially in a SHTF situation.

This is why I buy Nido to store - it is whole powdered milk ("fortified") and tastes just like milk to me (and I am picky about milk) when properly mixed and refrigerated (mix with warm water, then chill). But just like any milk, it will spoil if not kept cold.

A 3.5 pound can of Nido is about $14. It makes 3.3 gallons of whole milk. Whole milk is about $3.50 per gallon. Nido is about $4.30 per gallon. Not bad relatively - especially since it comes in a can and is powdered.

I also buy lactase - because interestingly, I am lactose intolerant (I usually use Mocha Mix instead of milk, but there is no powdered Mocha Mix so I store Nido for emergencies - I generally buy a can once a month).
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Old 12-27-2012, 04:11 PM
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If the subsidies stopped, and tax money was freed up, do you think that money would be returned to the people? Not a chance. It would be used for more Welfare, or kickbacks, or to pay for Planned Parenthood or something.
The whole thing behind the "cliff" (at least with regards to government spending) is that a law was passed in the past that mandated a "budget ceiling" i.e., only a certain amount of money could be spent. The idea was that by mandating that limit the gov. would find a way to cut spending increases and the deficit would eventually decrease to the point where it would go away (the yearly deficit, not the public debt). This is good, in the long term, for both the economy and taxes.

Problem is, each year the Congress has increased the ceiling limit instead of cutting back spending. In effect gutting the purpose of the law - but they have to do it each year, or they have to repeal the law.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_fiscal_cliff

So, if nothing is done, then automatic decreases occur over the whole budget.

Yes, there are other subsidies, and yes the tendency of gov is to spend more money than they have and if it becomes "available" from other sources then they often find a way to spend it elsewhere.

But that doesn't make subsidies a good thing.

Saying that "well Joe does it, and Joe would do it more if I don't do it too" doesn't make something right or necessary or good.

So in general, no, I don't cry when a subsidy is eliminated - and I think farm subsidies are a lot less harmful than other subsidies. But I don't believe in holding a bill hostage by inserting some popular spending amendment/program/etc. (which is almost always done).
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Old 12-27-2012, 04:17 PM
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I sincerely doubt we will see any real price increases on food that would be directly tied to this fiscal cliff.

If anything, I think this cliff will have the opposite effect because "we the people" will have less money to spend, which should mean we will be more frugal and retailers will have to work harder, by offering better value and/or lower prices, to earn what little spending money we have left.

Beyond that, there are other forces at play, mainly the weather - droughts, flooding, storms, etc, that will have a much more significant impact on food pricing. These increases can be offset somewhat by either growing your own or stocking up now - before the current reserves run out.
People have to buy food and energy and shelter.

They need to eat, keep warm, travel to work, and have a roof over their heads. For the most part these things are necessary regardless of cost. No parent is going to tell their kids that they can't have supper because they are going to to boycott food until the prices come down. They may buy less expensive food (or shop at a less expensive store - I buy the same food at Winco that costs 50% to 100% more at Safeway).

They may even raise some of their own if they can. But every human has to eat, and most humans buy food. So the choice will come down to whether to pay for cable or food, and food will win out (with most people - with my ex, she thought having a new couch was more important than having food or a roof over her head - still thinks that today).

But I doubt that food middlemen/distributors will cut their costs because of market pressure. Grocery stores may, but not the middlemen/distributors/feed lots/big food/farm corps. Farmers are already losing money selling their goods, they can't cut any more - as it is they are going out of business.
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