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Old 08-15-2012, 12:55 AM
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Default Active shooter, reality check.



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Ok reality time here, there have been 281 Active shooter incidents from 1966 to 2010, thats world wide. 237 in of those are in the US. What does that mean, you are more likely to die choking on your food than you are being up against an active shooter. Can you give yourself the Heimlich Maneuver? You have a better chance of dying by tripping and falling down, do you know how to fall? (No seriously, do search for "Break fall') On average per attack you have 3 deaths, now there is the occasional difference to this, Columbine, and the Colorado theater for example.

Even with all of this your odds of being shot by a disgruntled coworker are higher than a random shooter, so odds are Bob from accounting is going to be a more likely attacker than that random shooter at Sears. Do you have a plan for how will you deal with Bob? (Bob is a recital name, interject your own questionable coworker)

I know what I would do, keep Bob as a friendly small talk coworker so when the day comes that Bob snaps he will hopefully see me hiding in my office and say "Hi (your name), thanks for being nice to me." and as he turns sparing my life for treating him like a human I will give him a massive taint punt, followed by a kick to the balls since my work place has a no gun policy.(This is satire, but you get the idea? I am in construction, we are armed.)

Look around you, what is the likely hood of say being mugged by a knife wielding attacker. What are the odds of being in a flash mob beat down, now thats a bit more probable if you are in a "urban" city, but its still pretty low. What are your odds of being punched in the face in the bar, pretty damn high. Have you even considered any H2H training. Boxing, MMA, taekwondo? OK don't take taekwondo that was BS. Go get some real training not no sissy belt gym BS, a real Dojo where you may bleed a little now and then. Bleeding in the Gym is good, more blood in there is less blood out there.

What does all this mean, you have roughly the same odds of being in an active shooter situation as you have to be struck by lightning. And even then as long as its not a hit in your dome, or pumper you have an 80% chance of survival. So carry a gun, if their is a sign saying no you cant, decide... do you want to ignore it, disarm, or find another store, restaurant, theater what ever.

Now what if you cant carry a gun due to your states illegal legislation saying you cant...again learn some good H2H, and fight against the legislation to over turn the law so you can be armed. Till then do what you can with what you have. If its a green lazer its a green lazer, but what are you going to do, just keep shining him till he says **** it and goes home? Its a good distraction but not much more, and paints you as a target. Also if you are up against a Charles Whitman shooter your lazer ain't gonna do squat, thats when the good old cardio comes in to play.

Now lets say you can carry a gun, can you use it? What I mean is can you first of all go towards the gunfire wile all others are running? Know that your odds of survival are lowered by this. Secondly once finding the shooter can you put a bullet in his dome, can you kill? Third if you can not kill can you live knowing you could have stopped the deaths of X number of people after you made it to the shooter? Now I know the answers if you are Police or Military, but what if you work in a cubical, the closest you have come to this is Call of Duty, except in Cod you weren't ****ing down your leg once the rounds came your way.

There is a lot to a situation like this, first off if all your handgun training has been standing in this position and firing you will likely get shot. If you are in a shootout you need to move. If you have never shot a hand gun on the move before you need to start. Seek training that will help you in this if need be, if you are in IA drop me a line I will help you. Now keep in mind movement is not shuffling backwards as I have seen some schools teach. Movement is left right back front, and done dynamically. This means walking or running distances, and speeds. Now doing all of that you need to still be able to stab the attacker with bullets. Its a lot to take in from the old stand in this spot and fire, but it will give you a bit more confidence should you need to use these skills. You will have real training to fall back on.

Look I know this site is for "Prepping" but why are you prepping for the most unlikely of scenarios. Its not like you carry a grounding rod in case of thunderstorms(or do you?). Can it happen to you, yea it might, but preparing for the punch in the face in the bar, a mugger on the street, and a number of other skills learned for every day possibilities can do you better than a full on what if plan, just for a shooter scenario that you don't actually have the necessary skills for. This is a real threat not to be diluted by a delusion of grandeur. Hero fantasy will get you killed, but at least they will say you were a brave soul. Besides how dumb would you feel if you died falling over a potted plant because your shoes were covered in pee wile running to, or from a shooter because you didn't know how to fall.



most info from here
http://www.asisonline.org/education/activeShooter.xml

http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/html/co..._shooter.shtml

I was going to post this elsewhere in a thread but once I got started ranting I couldn't stop, so to not thread jack I started here.

Last edited by TinmanIA; 08-15-2012 at 12:59 AM.. Reason: Extra W
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Old 08-16-2012, 07:00 AM
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Look I know this site is for "Prepping" but why are you prepping for the most unlikely of scenarios.
Because it's unlikely doesn't mean it's impossible. It's easier to prepare for an active shooter (train, carry, practice) than it is for lightning or falling. Sure, carrying a gun doesn't give you an automatic assurance that you'll prevail in a gunfight (and nobody says that it will). However, meekly submitting to the bad guy with the gun 100% guarantees you a certain death or grave injury (see also: Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora). Personally, if I have to die anyway, I'd rather die lying among my own spent brass than cowering in fear.

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Its not like you carry a grounding rod in case of thunderstorms(or do you?). Can it happen to you, yea it might, but preparing for the punch in the face in the bar, a mugger on the street, and a number of other skills learned for every day possibilities can do you better than a full on what if plan, just for a shooter scenario that you don't actually have the necessary skills for.
So how does your theory work for those unlucky few that actually encounter an active shooter? I read some of the DHS "training" for people to remember if they find themselves in an active shooter situation:

3. TAKE ACTION • As a last resort and only when your life is in imminent danger • Attempt to incapacitate the shooter • Act with physical aggression and throw items at the active shooter

So the same government that brought us "duck and cover" as a response to a nuclear attack tells us pretty much the same worthless advice when it comes to being shot at in an enclosed area. Thanks, but I'll stick with my trusty Glock.

By the way, I do get the gist of your post. I think most of the people on this board (with some exceptions) would be capable of ending an active shooter's spree.
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Old 08-16-2012, 08:11 AM
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Good OP.

Though if there have been 281 "active shooter" incidents since 1966, I guess someone changed the definition of an "active shooter" incident is while I wasn't looking. I wonder what definition the compiler of that number used?

Regardless of the definition used, there have been 10s of thousands of gang and drug related shootings in that time period, so you are more at risk from that if you live around high gang and drug areas then you are from an active shooter. yet those don't get all that much press.
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Old 08-16-2012, 08:30 AM
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Originally Posted by InfScout View Post
Good OP.

Though if there have been 281 "active shooter" incidents since 1966, I guess someone changed the definition of an "active shooter" incident is while I wasn't looking. I wonder what definition the compiler of that number used?

Regardless of the definition used, there have been 10s of thousands of gang and drug related shootings in that time period, so you are more at risk from that if you live around high gang and drug areas then you are from an active shooter. yet those don't get all that much press.
Agree you can have that many in just one a year in a large city alone
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Old 08-17-2012, 09:19 AM
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Originally Posted by WarHammerFiveFive View Post
Because it's unlikely doesn't mean it's impossible. It's easier to prepare for an active shooter (train, carry, practice) than it is for lightning or falling. Sure, carrying a gun doesn't give you an automatic assurance that you'll prevail in a gunfight (and nobody says that it will). However, meekly submitting to the bad guy with the gun 100% guarantees you a certain death or grave injury (see also: Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora). Personally, if I have to die anyway, I'd rather die lying among my own spent brass than cowering in fear.



So how does your theory work for those unlucky few that actually encounter an active shooter? I read some of the DHS "training" for people to remember if they find themselves in an active shooter situation:

3. TAKE ACTION • As a last resort and only when your life is in imminent danger • Attempt to incapacitate the shooter • Act with physical aggression and throw items at the active shooter

So the same government that brought us "duck and cover" as a response to a nuclear attack tells us pretty much the same worthless advice when it comes to being shot at in an enclosed area. Thanks, but I'll stick with my trusty Glock.

By the way, I do get the gist of your post. I think most of the people on this board (with some exceptions) would be capable of ending an active shooter's spree.
First of all I never said to submit, run like a little bitch I said, but never surrender, or submit. It is not really easy to train for a lightning strike that is true, but falling is easy, we did it all the time in the dojo. Just like our shooting, we do very little standing in place, we do a lot moving.

For those few who might some day meet a crazy in the mall with an Uzi, good martial arts training, and basic, or advanced pistol training will do them just fine. For those who do little to none of that training, or are not armed, I don't know.

Its kind of like going out to train in full tac gear when you conceal carry. People should focus on learning a few basic things that will help you in all situations more than just planning for massive situations.

I do agree a lot of people on her would have no issue with ending someone like this, but we do have a few stuck in their delusions of being Mad Max in the PAW that would probably die.


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Originally Posted by InfScout View Post
Good OP.

Though if there have been 281 "active shooter" incidents since 1966, I guess someone changed the definition of an "active shooter" incident is while I wasn't looking. I wonder what definition the compiler of that number used?

Regardless of the definition used, there have been 10s of thousands of gang and drug related shootings in that time period, so you are more at risk from that if you live around high gang and drug areas then you are from an active shooter. yet those don't get all that much press.
All I can figure is the scenario. Active shooter is more mall, or P'ed off employee. A gang shooting is just a regular one, usually against a rival more so than random folks.

I think Random shooter would be more descriptive but thats me. You are correct though, if you live, or work in an area with some kind of gang activity, or a more ghetto area you are far more likely to encounter a gang shoot out, or a car jacking, or ect. Two rival gangs shooting it out is not exactly something I will go towards to stop unless I have been unfortunate enough to get caught in the cross fire. But that goes back to the punch in the face, or the guy in the mall, what is most likely for me, and what can I do to prepare for it.

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Agree you can have that many in just one a year in a large city alone
Like what we are seeing in Chicago.
Old 08-17-2012, 10:56 AM
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Originally Posted by TinmanIA View Post
Ok reality time here, there have been 281 Active shooter incidents from 1966 to 2010, thats world wide. 237 in of those are in the US. What does that mean, you are more likely to die choking on your food than you are being up against an active shooter.
Funny because I have been within a block of 2 different "active shooters" while OFF-DUTY. I could hear the shots, called in both of them, and they were confirmed shootings. Your definition must be extremely exclusive.
Old 08-17-2012, 11:02 AM
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I work with a guy named Bob....I'm gonna take him out before he takes me out...Sorry Bob...
Just pointing this out before a mod does - you might want to pay a little closer attention to this rule:

23. We have a ZERO TOLERANCE policy for the incitement of harm to others. You are free to voice opinion in an adult manner however incitement of harm, death or injury is unacceptable- be it directly or indirectly, meant as a joke or serious.
Old 08-17-2012, 11:05 AM
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Just pointing this out before a mod does - you might want to pay a little closer attention to this rule:

23. We have a ZERO TOLERANCE policy for the incitement of harm to others. You are free to voice opinion in an adult manner however incitement of harm, death or injury is unacceptable- be it directly or indirectly, meant as a joke or serious.
You do realize that I was joking? I don't really work with a guy named Bob....
Old 08-17-2012, 11:19 AM
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Funny because I have been within a block of 2 different "active shooters" while OFF-DUTY. I could hear the shots, called in both of them, and they were confirmed shootings. Your definition must be extremely exclusive.
Its not my definition it is the NYPD's. Well its the term they used in the report I linked. Honestly a bad guy with a gun is a bad guy with a gun in my opinion.

I usualy hear shots fired once or twice a year in my neighborhood, mostly gang, or other criminal related activity. I agree the term is odd, I mean no many shooters are inactive afterall.
Old 08-17-2012, 11:19 AM
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You do realize that I was joking? I don't really work with a guy named Bob....
In todays crazy world that can be considered a very serious threat....I try to watch very closely what I type online just saying....although I understand you were joking someone might not
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Old 08-17-2012, 11:23 AM
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In todays crazy world that can be considered a very serious threat....I try to watch very closely what I type online just saying....although I understand you were joking someone might not
My bad.. I deleated it..
Old 08-17-2012, 11:25 AM
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My bad.. I deleated it..
Its sad when you cant even joke around but that is the DHS, TSA, Patriot Act world we now live in
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Old 08-17-2012, 11:51 AM
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This is a decent video for someone not in a position to shoot back.

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Old 08-17-2012, 11:53 AM
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"Whatever you do- never get a concealed carry permit & handgun. that's just WRONG"
Old 08-17-2012, 12:03 PM
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Now why's the killer have to be a white guy? He can't be black, asian, or of Muslim decent? This is racist....I'm offended, I'm calling the ACLU...
Old 08-17-2012, 12:18 PM
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Do what you want to...its all up to you. Me? An active shooter falls into the ambush category. How do you break an ambush? Attack through it. The shooter expects everyone to cower and flee. Attacking is unexpected and takes his momentum away. Those few seconds it takes for his OODA loop to reset gives you a chance to put that sumbitch in a world of hurt.

Oh and it should be obvious but carry....and have training to properly employ your CCW.
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Old 08-17-2012, 12:24 PM
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Ok reality time here, there have been 281 Active shooter incidents from 1966 to 2010, thats world wide. 237 in of those are in the US. . . . snip
281-237=44 outside of the U.S. Um, I guess I'll claim those for myself in Afghanistan. Maybe some countries are under reporting.
Old 08-17-2012, 12:30 PM
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Now why's the killer have to be a white guy? He can't be black, asian, or of Muslim decent? This is racist....I'm offended, I'm calling the ACLU...
Hispanics always shoot with their guns sideways, missing their targets so never reported as an active shooter.

Muslim decent? I'll take that as Arab Muslim. They have a trademark on "Active Bomber, suicide"

Blacks arn't stupid, they are already running before the sirens get close.

Asian, "Active Kung Fu"

It has to be a White guy.
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Old 08-17-2012, 12:30 PM
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Now why's the killer have to be a white guy? He can't be black, asian, or of Muslim decent? This is racist....I'm offended, I'm calling the ACLU...
Not just that did you notice almost everyone in that film was not white except the shooter, almost saying that whites attack like crazy killers at any moment
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Old 08-17-2012, 12:33 PM
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My bad.. I deleated it..
I wasn't trying to be a bad a**, I honestly didn't want to see a mod step in. My sense of humor is sicker than most, but I understand why I need to watch it here. Just one DB who types a threat here and then acts on it...Our friend Kev (maybe some of us too) is in deep doo-doo and we no longer have a forum.
If you haven't been to the Dark Side yet, give it a try
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