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Old 04-29-2009, 07:47 AM
123Testing 123Testing is offline
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Default How does the CDC define deaths????



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Back last spring/summer I had to hire a 24/7 crew of private pay nurses to care for my Mother in my Family Room via the Home Hospice Program. Some of those nurses had previous nursing home experience, and have read their fair share of death certificates. We were chatting last night, and they brought up a very very curious question....

The CDC reports X number of deaths per year from Pneumonia. WHICH Pneumonia cases are they counting? Because.... MOST elderly nursing home death certificates read they died of Pneumonia. Dementia was NOT the cause of death. Dementia was secondary to the death, NOT PRIMARY.

So.... IF IF IF they are counting these Nursing Home deaths of Pneumonia... then us thinking 36,000 Pneumonia deaths yearly is misleading. If you subtract the 'old age' deaths.... subtract the 'cancer' deaths that ended in Pnemonia, etc.... suddenly the Pneumonia count would be much much lower.

So the REAL question needs to be.... how many Pneumonia deaths FROM THE FLU happens yearly? And the nurses were struggling to figure out how they count Flu deaths, since technically, nobody dies from the Flu. It's the Pneumonia that kills them.

I'm thinking that counting on CDC counts is misleading us.

I just pulled my Mothers death certificate.... It reads.... Heart Failure as the Primary. Pneumonia as Secondary. Lewy Body Dementia as Long Term Contributing. So just exactly HOW did the CDC count my Mother's death?

Last edited by 123Testing; 04-29-2009 at 07:59 AM.. Reason: Just to add...
Old 06-12-2012, 09:44 AM
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Brilliant.
Old 06-12-2012, 10:11 AM
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No, it isn't misleading, it's the way things are done. It isn't trying to "hide" anything at call.

The primary cause of death was congestive heart failure. Without that, the pneumonia may not have occurred, thus it was "secondary" to the heart failure.

Pneumonia used to be (and will be again, I think) called "the old man's friend."

To be diagnosed as flu, it requires serologic tests to confirm which strain it was...and then it has to be confirmed by CDC. This is a closely monitored thing,to ensure we don't have another pandemic...we will, it's just a matter of time.
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Old 06-12-2012, 10:39 AM
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So what youre saying is, when the zombie Apocalypse happens, nobody will actually die as a result of whatever virus or bacteria causes the apox, but in fact, lead poisoning will be the culprit of the largest pandemic in human history? No wonder the democrats want our guns and ammo.
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Old 06-12-2012, 11:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oneeyeross View Post
To be diagnosed as flu, it requires serologic tests to confirm which strain it was...and then it has to be confirmed by CDC. This is a closely monitored thing,to ensure we don't have another pandemic...we will, it's just a matter of time.
CDC stats are suspect........rem the 36K flu deaths every year numbers they used to trot out every flu season.........fantasyland number.....there was no source for that number at all

Ive always found it interesting that folks would quote CDC stats as the word of god when the CDC itself rarely sources where they got their numbers from

In other words.....take the numbers w/ a grain of salt
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Old 06-12-2012, 11:56 AM
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To be diagnosed as flu, it requires serologic tests to confirm which strain it was...and then it has to be confirmed by CDC. .
not true always either...the last "swine" flu scare was a perfect example of unscientific diagnosis. Doctors were told to diagnosis swine flu w/o lab confirmation if the symptoms were presented in a given time period when "swine flu" was at risk....hardly rock solid science

I wonder how many cases of swine flu were mistaken for seasonal flu?
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Old 06-13-2012, 08:48 AM
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well, back when I worked, this was a frequent read. It's full of good stuff about where the numbers come from...http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/
Old 06-13-2012, 10:45 AM
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Perhaps they count them the same way the government figures unemployment? If they're still dead after 90 days, they don't count anymore.
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Old 06-13-2012, 12:50 PM
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well, back when I worked, this was a frequent read. It's full of good stuff about where the numbers come from...http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/
most regular folks never get to see the weekly report.....its how those numbers are interpreted and communicated to reg folks that things get confusing and possibly fraudulant

I stand by my statement on CDC flu deaths being wrong.......this can be found from multiple sources
Old 06-13-2012, 01:47 PM
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ICD-10 should help clear these things up soon.
But technically, if pneumonia was the immediate cause of death, it should be listed as the cause of death. This is no mistake.

If you want to hire a data analyst or epidemiologist (), you could eliminate those who have other underlying causes from the count and figure it out fairly easily, if you have access to the data.
Old 06-13-2012, 03:42 PM
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ICD-10 should help clear these things up soon.
.
they have been saying that for years...........It was just delayed AGAIN to 2013
Old 06-13-2012, 04:57 PM
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So what youre saying is, when the zombie Apocalypse happens, nobody will actually die as a result of whatever virus or bacteria causes the apox, but in fact, lead poisoning will be the culprit of the largest pandemic in human history?
Exactly. If I have terminal cancer and off myself with a gun. The cause of death would be a bullet. Ultimately I don't really care about their stats. No matter how they say I died I am dead and it won't matter to me.
Old 06-13-2012, 07:37 PM
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not true always either...the last "swine" flu scare was a perfect example of unscientific diagnosis. Doctors were told to diagnosis swine flu w/o lab confirmation if the symptoms were presented in a given time period when "swine flu" was at risk....hardly rock solid science

I wonder how many cases of swine flu were mistaken for seasonal flu?
They were able to diagnose as swine flu because during that time it was the only strain occuring. Symptoms to diagnose were clearly defined. This practice was not started until we were a couple months into the swine flu season
At my hospital we did test every single patient that was admitted (and a lot more that weren't). Out of hundreds of tests, I think only about 2 or 3 came back as Flu B, one was an A not-H1N1. Negligible.
Old 06-13-2012, 11:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 12vman View Post
not true always either...the last "swine" flu scare was a perfect example of unscientific diagnosis. Doctors were told to diagnosis swine flu w/o lab confirmation if the symptoms were presented in a given time period when "swine flu" was at risk....hardly rock solid science

I wonder how many cases of swine flu were mistaken for seasonal flu?
Not quite. I caught H1N1 working in the ER at Ft. Leonardwood. the pa did two tests, one for flu a ( h1n1 is in this category) and a sample was sent to the cdc for confirmation. The flu a test came up positive later that day and I was put on antivirals. 2 days later the pa called to say the cdc called and confirmed it was h1n1, it was only then I was truly diagnosed with h1n1.
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Old 06-14-2012, 08:50 AM
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Not quite. I caught H1N1 working in the ER at Ft. Leonardwood. the pa did two tests, one for flu a ( h1n1 is in this category) and a sample was sent to the cdc for confirmation. The flu a test came up positive later that day and I was put on antivirals. 2 days later the pa called to say the cdc called and confirmed it was h1n1, it was only then I was truly diagnosed with h1n1.
don't confuse people with facts. It gets in the way of the tin foil.
Old 06-15-2012, 06:40 PM
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The CDC numbers reflect those cases that are confirmed and probable. The case definitions classify what is truly a confirmed, probable, suspect or no-case based on laboratory tests and signs/symptoms. The cases are then reported through local and state health departments based on their investigations. Many cases are not reported because: many physicians do not order laboratory tests and treat based on symptoms, the person does not seek medical care and recovers, or for some reason the case is not determined to be confirmed or probable.

If someone really would stop, listen and educate themselves they would understand that yes- the CDC numbers are not 100% accurate because they will never be 100% for many reasons. However, the CDC numbers are extremely important for epidemiologists (like me) to monitor the burden of communicable diseases in the population and to identify trends. The 36,000 deaths from influenza every year are based on data and statistical calculations given a confidence interval and level of significance. Therefore, the CDC's best guess is more accurate than the crap that is posted by internet crack-pots who point out the obvious that the CDC numbers do not reflect the actual number of cases that occur.
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Old 06-15-2012, 06:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 12vman View Post
not true always either...the last "swine" flu scare was a perfect example of unscientific diagnosis. Doctors were told to diagnosis swine flu w/o lab confirmation if the symptoms were presented in a given time period when "swine flu" was at risk....hardly rock solid science

I wonder how many cases of swine flu were mistaken for seasonal flu?
H1N1 was a pandemic, but not a severe pandemic. When the initial information was being reported from Mexico the case fatality rate was being reported by the media as around 7%. I know because, I calculated the rate on a Sunday afternoon at home and called a meeting among all the managers in my department for the next day. At 7% this would have been S hitting TF. However, once the CDC EIS officers investigated further the numbers came into alignment later that week and the rate was much lower. We reacted correctly to this event by deploying SNS materiel, Antivirals, and holding mass vaccinations clinics because we didn't know what was going to happen. Based on previous pandemics, subsequent waves were more severe and caused greater morbidity and mortality.

The unscientific diagnosis was due to the facts that a test had to be developed and then disseminated to the state public health labs from the CDC. Later the SPHL were able to conduct higher volume of tests so that more accurate diagnosis could occur. However, the seasonal flu test was still useful enough to diagnose influenza A and It wasn't necessary to send every case to additional testing because it wouldn't have mattered whether the person had infuenza A seasonal or H1N1. The treatment would have been the same. Some sentinel surveillane sites (physician offices and hospitals) were sending all positive influenza specimens to the CDC for further testing.

From the inside of the H1N1 response, it was a real pandemic and thankfully it wasn't severe. However, I did have the unfortunate task of interviewing parents whose children were hospitalized and/or in the ICU. Their perspective was that the H1N1 virus was a real concern and most definitely did not consider it hype.
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Old 06-18-2012, 08:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Michelle_3kds View Post
They were able to diagnose as swine flu because during that time it was the only strain occuring. Symptoms to diagnose were clearly defined. This practice was not started until we were a couple months into the swine flu season
At my hospital we did test every single patient that was admitted (and a lot more that weren't). Out of hundreds of tests, I think only about 2 or 3 came back as Flu B, one was an A not-H1N1. Negligible.
So the regular seasonal flu just went bye bye for that time period.....come on now
Old 06-18-2012, 08:31 PM
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Not quite. I caught H1N1 working in the ER at Ft. Leonardwood. the pa did two tests, one for flu a ( h1n1 is in this category) and a sample was sent to the cdc for confirmation. The flu a test came up positive later that day and I was put on antivirals. 2 days later the pa called to say the cdc called and confirmed it was h1n1, it was only then I was truly diagnosed with h1n1.
you were tested.....my post still stands......docs were told to diagnosis swine flu even if it wasnt lab confirmed
Old 06-18-2012, 08:34 PM
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. The 36,000 deaths from influenza every year are based on data and statistical calculations given a confidence interval and level of significance. Therefore, the CDC's best guess is more accurate than the crap that is posted by internet crack-pots who point out the obvious that the CDC numbers do not reflect the actual number of cases that occur.
The number was wrong because the CDC added pneumonia deaths to those flu numbers......off the top of my head the real flu death numbers(from the CDC) were around 1400-1700.......but those low numbers dont sell flu vaccine now do they?
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